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The bull run is over--- WSJ headlines
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
The girl is pretty,she is willing but there is a good chance that she is a V-Visitor and while making love will turn into a reptile and eat you up.You want to have sex with her while being careful so you get away before she turns into a monster.I say I cannot tell when she'll eat me up so I take another strategy and renounce the sex with that girl.
Each to their own.
Quote from pfranz:
The girl is pretty,she is willing but there is a good chance that she is a V-Visitor and while making love will turn into a reptile and eat you up.You want to have sex with her while being careful so you get away before she turns into a monster.I say I cannot tell when she'll eat me up so I take another strategy and renounce the sex with that girl.
Fine,but there is a difference:volatility is still on the short side.So, long is riskier than short.Those who say now "don't fight the trend" are just hurt from steady BUT SLOW rise.Maybe they didn't think how it would have been,had they been long with the market going down.Uncle Ben wanted them to turn long,and they obeyed.
Maybe they think they can turn short when market will become short,this is more or less being able to call tops.I admire them if they can.But market could become choppy in a way that could stop them till they lose all the money they made being long.
Let's wait and see.
Maybe they think they can turn short when market will become short,this is more or less being able to call tops.I admire them if they can.But market could become choppy in a way that could stop them till they lose all the money they made being long.
Let's wait and see.
I have an auto program that deletes the rest of the post any time someome uses the word "if".Quote from pfranz:
Fine,but there is a difference:volatility is still on the short side.So, long is riskier than short.Those who say now "don't fight the trend" are just hurt from steady BUT SLOW rise.Maybe they didn't think how it would have been,had they been long with the market going down.Uncle Ben wanted them to turn long,and they obeyed.
Maybe they think they can turn short when market will become short,this is more or less being able to call tops.I admire them
it started out when I was a kid. Back then you got Barrons once a week. I just circled everytime the word "Bear" appeared, and everytime the word "Bull" appeared. And then just counted them up and made a chart. Most of the time it was about 50/50. But when one side started getting heavy, it was a great contrarian indicator. A lot of "Bears" and you knew it was a good time to start looking for a buying opportunity.Quote from Xspurt:
If it works well I'll send you $50 for a copy of it.
Since then, I follow TA. You can pretty much discount anybody's analysis by the number of times they use the word "if". I've known these guys a long time, I've traded side by side with them (and they almost never trade, just prognosticate) and everything thing in their mind will happen "if" something else happens.
So they never have a foundation. They never know what to do. They only know what could happen "if" happens.
That's actually the way the way I trade. I always know ahead of time what I will do if something happens. But it doesn't have much to do with predicting the future.
But I will tell you this, "If the stock market goes lower it could go a lot lower." But, "If it goes higher, it could go much higher."
Quote from oldtime:
it started out when I was a kid. Back then you got Barrons once a week. I just circled everytime the word "Bear" appeared, and everytime the word "Bull" appeared. And then just counted them up and made a chart. Most of the time it was about 50/50. But when one side started getting heavy, it was a great contrarian indicator. A lot of "Bears" and you knew it was a good time to start looking for a buying opportunity.
Since then, I follow TA. You can pretty much discount anybody's analysis by the number of times they use the word "if". I've known these guys a long time, I've traded side by side with them (and they almost never trade, just prognosticate) and everything thing in their mind will happen "if" something else happens.
So they never have a foundation. They never know what to do. They only know what could happen "if" happens.
That's actually the way the way I trade. I always know ahead of time what I will do if something happens. But it doesn't have much to do with predicting the future.
Actually that's a very interesting concept
But I will tell you this, "If the stock market goes lower it could go a lot lower." But, "If it goes higher, it could go much higher."
Me too rarely act upon future prediction,that's why I'm short though I think the market will rise.Though I'm NOT Nassim Taleb,he does a similar thing:when asked in 2009 where stock market would probably go,he replied "up",and he was buying puts.Maybe he estimated a greater expectancy on puts than on calls.
But also many classical trend following systems, even when they are profitable,have a win/loss ratio < 0.5 (say 0.3),which means that they are most of the time wrong on market direction.
But also many classical trend following systems, even when they are profitable,have a win/loss ratio < 0.5 (say 0.3),which means that they are most of the time wrong on market direction.