The bull run is over--- WSJ headlines

Swan Noir · Apr 11, 2013

I'm a bit perplexed by much of the debate in this thread. It's a bull market and at some point it will become a doubtful market and at another point it will become a bear.

The only fruitfull conversation is about how to recognize the turn. In the meantime being long is smart and everything else is dumb based on current fact. That current fact being: IT"S A BULL MARKET!!!

pfranz · Apr 11, 2013

ah,ah,"printing" is actually a complex procedure,I believe there is no actual printing but rather an electronic credit on accounts which buy bonds.
The idea I have is connected to the Ponzi scheme: the number of new participants must grow exponentially to keep the system alive,and that is impossible. Maybe also with printing,the amount pumped must grow exponentially?If so, is there a stop or it can go on forever,given that money is created virtually and electronically?

oldtime · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from pfranz:

ah,ah,"printing" is actually a complex procedure,I believe there is no actual printing but rather an electronic credit on accounts which buy bonds.
The idea I have is connected to the Ponzi scheme: the number of new participants must grow exponentially to keep the system alive,and that is impossible. Maybe also with printing,the amount pumped must grow exponentially?If so, is there a stop or it can go on forever,given that money is created virtually and electronically?

we can create as much money as we need. The only constraint being inflation.

Tsing Tao · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from pfranz:

ah,ah,"printing" is actually a complex procedure,I believe there is no actual printing but rather an electronic credit on accounts which buy bonds.
The idea I have is connected to the Ponzi scheme: the number of new participants must grow exponentially to keep the system alive,and that is impossible. Maybe also with printing,the amount pumped must grow exponentially?If so, is there a stop or it can go on forever,given that money is created virtually and electronically?

This all works well until a gallon of milk is $17.50.

Lucrum · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from Swan Noir:

I'm a bit perplexed by much of the debate in this thread....
The only fruit full conversation is about how to recognize the turn...

+ 2

S2007S · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from Tsing Tao:

This all works well until a gallon of milk is $17.50.

Inflation is here, just take a walk to your grocery store or go out to eat....even prices of services are high, go call up and have some work done in your house and see the prices it cost to disconnect and reconnect a sink, or do a new bathroom.....my friend wanted to rip up about 450-500 sqf of concrete in his basement and put in new, cost approx $5000!

S2007S · Apr 11, 2013

IT says below the "ONLY WAY QUANTITATIVE EASING WILL BE TAPERED OFF IS IF THE LABOR MARKET SHOWS NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT"

Really, so thats how were going to stop QE, with the labor market showing signs of improvement, again there is nothing but hot air under this market, anyone who thinks this is going to continue without a collapse better realize bull markets and free worthless money dont last forever! Every country is doing some sort of QE to stimulate their economy, when does it end, when do we finally let the economy do its own thing, where are the free markets!

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The Federal Reserve unexpectedly released the minutes from its most recent policy-setting meeting five hours early. The minutes showed a few policymakers expected to taper the pace of asset purchases by mid-year and end them later this year, while several others expected to slow the pace a bit later and halt the quantitative easing program by year-end.

Accommodative monetary policy from the Fed has been credited with helping to boost equity prices, and uncertainty surrounding the minutes briefly hit indexes in the premarket session, though they subsequently recovered.

"The only way quantitative easing will be tapered off is if the labor market shows noticeable improvement, and the most recent data doesn't show that," said Northern Trust's McDonald, referring to the March payroll report, which fell sharply short of expectations.

"QE will only be taken away when we're in a self-sustaining recovery. We're not there yet, which points to the Fed continuing to stimulate the economy."

S2007S · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from Swan Noir:

I'm a bit perplexed by much of the debate in this thread. It's a bull market and at some point it will become a doubtful market and at another point it will become a bear.

The only fruitfull conversation is about how to recognize the turn. In the meantime being long is smart and everything else is dumb based on current fact. That current fact being: IT"S A BULL MARKET!!!

Its a fed money printing bull market! Only a few people will actually comprehend this, all the others are in LALA land thinking this is going to last forever!

Asset bubbles are the only way they know how to prop up an economy, if this was a real recovery in the economy and the market there would be no such thing as QE1 QE2 QE3 and bond buying programs and historical low interest rates and the list goes on and on.....

Swan Noir · Apr 11, 2013

Yes ... it is an asset bubble but why would I want to miss the ride? Am I unwilling to earn unless the "type" of bull market pleases me. Am I so fastidious that I need the run up to be based on sound FED and fiscal policies. The girl is pretty, she is willing, it is late and we both have had a bit too much to drink. Am I going to insist that we wait until the next night so we can engage in an interesting and engaging conversation before I invite her home.

There is too much theory in this thread. Practicality dictates that you take the girl and be long the bull. If she says no so be it ... you back off. If the bull turns you sell and, at some point, you consider getting short. The pratice in both cases is maybe not so easy to do flawlessly but the theory is very damn straightforward; unless of course you are in the business of picking the tops in long term (multi-year) bull trends. If you are please keep a safe and considerate distance from me as it might be contagous. I'm not suggesting you can't make money picking those types of tops but I am stating emphatically that I do not have a clue as to how to make money picking tops and/or bottoms that are not yet in!!!

Quote from S2007S:

Its a fed money printing bull market! Only a few people will actually comprehend this, all the others are in LALA land thinking this is going to last forever!

Asset bubbles are the only way they know how to prop up an economy, if this was a real recovery in the economy and the market there would be no such thing as QE1 QE2 QE3 and bond buying programs and historical low interest rates and the list goes on and on.....

LEAPup · Apr 15, 2013

Quote from Swan Noir:

Yes ... it is an asset bubble but why would I want to miss the ride? Am I unwilling to earn unless the "type" of bull market pleases me. Am I so fastidious that I need the run up to be based on sound FED and fiscal policies. The girl is pretty, she is willing, it is late and we both have had a bit too much to drink. Am I going to insist that we wait until the next night so we can engage in an interesting and engaging conversation before I invite her home.

There is too much theory in this thread. Practicality dictates that you take the girl and be long the bull. If she says no so be it ... you back off. If the bull turns you sell and, at some point, you consider getting short. The pratice in both cases is maybe not so easy to do flawlessly but the theory is very damn straightforward; unless of course you are in the business of picking the tops in long term (multi-year) bull trends. If you are please keep a safe and considerate distance from me as it might be contagous. I'm not suggesting you can't make money picking those types of tops but I am stating emphatically that I do not have a clue as to how to make money picking tops and/or bottoms that are not yet in!!!

Good post. Agreed. The last time I tried to pick a top, fight the fed, AND the trend... Well, we all know how that turned out.