The Bull Market is back!

[Amun Ra]

I'm still in tears of laughter from reading the title.

People who never traded nor have any clue about the markets complexities and structures call a bottom one month after the obvious economic cycle turned towards recession.

Sounds legit boys, sounds legit. Don't forget to post your bank details here so we can donate a couple of $ so you can afford meth and weed when you've lost your job.

Good lord, mankind can be so freaking stupid sometimes

I find it hilarious that you think you understand that giving away free money and inflating the money supply means prices go down.

You look to what has historically happened in the past, when we're experiencing something that has never historically happened.

 

[BurtBurton]

I find it hilarious that you think you understand that giving away free money and inflating the money supply means prices go down.

You look to what has historically happened in the past, when we're experiencing something that has never historically happened.

Pricing going up doesn't necessarily mean earnings go up. Despite having a demand shock like we've never seen before, we're also having a supply shock at the same time. Increasing the money supply may increase prices, but given the supply shocks that may be around the corner with the rapid shutdown of the economy, earnings may not rise. It's called stagflation.

 

[KCalhoun]

Ken - I happen to agree with you, but what are your thoughts on this latest rally? I've managed to protectmost of my accounts during this downturn, but curious to hear your thoughts on the next week or so. When are you going short? I've started nibbling the last couple days, but I'm wondering if fear from Coronavirus may be being blunted since it has been all the talk for the last few weeks.

I could be wrong, but I'm personally bearish and bought 6k worth of inverses for weekend hold premkt today ... not a trading recommendation..

 

[dozu888]

Dozu - A simple question of opportunity cost. Would you rather hold a company with a 50 P/E that pays out a 100% dividend (i.e. a 2% ROI) where you have to risk if they are going to go bankrupt when they can't make their debt payments? Or would you rather just hold your cash, forgo the 2% and wait until you can better deploy your capital?

Personally, I'd rather just hold the cash.

what 'A company'... my original question was -

with SPY forward yield at almost 6% now, considering the virus drag is canceled by the $6t injection... should be more than cancel as the drag should be about only $1t based on China data.

WHERE ARE YOU GONNA GET RETURNS NOW THAT RATES ARE ZERO AND GOING FURTHER INTO THE NEGATIVE.

you made an honest attempt so I give you credit... but so far nobody can... because there is NO answer to this rhetorical question...

anyone else?

ANSWER THE FCKING QUESTION

then we can move on.

 

[dozu888]

Pricing going up doesn't necessarily mean earnings go up. Despite having a demand shock like we've never seen before, we're also having a supply shock at the same time. Increasing the money supply may increase prices, but given the supply shocks that may be around the corner with the rapid shutdown of the economy, earnings may not rise. It's called stagflation.

before the virus SP was projected to have a 9% earning growth this year.... say lets cancel that... no growth this year, forward earning yield is still better than 5%.

the question comes back the same. and dead silence nobody has an answer.

you know why - because the sheep are butt hurt from missing the rally since 2009 and can't wait for a crash so their fragile ego can feel better.

like I said..... buy 10 fcking shares of SPY and put in your portfolio these idiots view of the market will completely change.... that's how stupid these people are..

ANSWER THE FCKING QUESTION THEN WE CAN MOVE ON.

 

[Amun Ra]

Pricing going up doesn't necessarily mean earnings go up. Despite having a demand shock like we've never seen before, we're also having a supply shock at the same time. Increasing the money supply may increase prices, but given the supply shocks that may be around the corner with the rapid shutdown of the economy, earnings may not rise. It's called stagflation.

I think your wrong about what's going to happen. We don't live in the 1950s anymore. The last 10 years we had incredible advancements in supply chain systems like end to end visibility for example.

It's 2020. We're living in the future. How things worked 10 years ago in business is not the same as today.

 

[Amun Ra]

I could be wrong, but I'm personally bearish and bought 6k worth of inverses for weekend hold premkt today ... not a trading recommendation..

View attachment 223211

Oh this will be fun.

 

[KCalhoun]

Oh this will be fun.

Watch and learn

 

[hhiusa]

I find it hilarious that you think you understand that giving away free money and inflating the money supply means prices go down.

You look to what has historically happened in the past, when we're experiencing something that has never historically happened.

We are talking about stock prices. Assets + liabilities = stockholder's equity. They are taking on massive amounts of debt. Free money always equals debt. Free money is not free.

Companies are going junk because:

Let's us this example. Say you are going to issue an unlimited supply of cash because you are the US and its all fiat anyway. You start at 102% debt-to-GDP. You are rated a certain way. You issue bonds and such based upon those ratings based upon your debt level. You aren't making any money because consumer spending is shrinking to autonomous consumption, etc. lowering tax income; however you are ever increasing your liabilities. Your rating can't stay the same. Anybody looking at you will see limited growth/income potential whilst you amass debt by print free money/issue corp debt if you are Ford/GE. Now, you have to issue a better rate of return when you go out to sell more bonds, which will expedite the rate at which your liabilities grow. This in turn, will worsen your crediting standing.

The more QE, the worse off we look. The more of something that exists, the less valuable it is. We will devalue our money out of existence.

 

[murray t turtle]

Lol. See where we're at a week from tomorrow. Hint: not higher. Unless you're smoking weed

#colorado

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FOX News noted we were out of the bear yesterday.LOL
I am glad I did an exit on RUSS,[oil is too low for me to buy /sell oil or that];
but SDOW is still above 200dma, but weaker .
SQQQ looks good for traders...…………………………………………………...………………..