Market down two days in a row, and no, I'm still not shorting anything.
The bull Market is back and here is why
- Thread starter congoboy
- Start date
I took some profits off the table. My solars made for the tech losses. still up about 15% since posting. I have several different hedges in place. I also have some index puts. Raised stops to 10%. if anything, I will walk away with some profits.
I freed up some cash and will look to trade some stocks while letting the majority of the portfolio take its course. So many people are bearish, everyone might think it's an easy sell. I talked some buddies who are traders for some banks and they said they r not as bearish as "people" are. Thats a hint in by itself that the banks are looking to add. We however might move sideways for another couple of months, thats why I will trade 10% of the portfolio. We are in the trough right now but we are heading back up. Lets see what unfolds Friday.
I freed up some cash and will look to trade some stocks while letting the majority of the portfolio take its course. So many people are bearish, everyone might think it's an easy sell. I talked some buddies who are traders for some banks and they said they r not as bearish as "people" are. Thats a hint in by itself that the banks are looking to add. We however might move sideways for another couple of months, thats why I will trade 10% of the portfolio. We are in the trough right now but we are heading back up. Lets see what unfolds Friday.
So, what's the deal? Since posting, I am up 34% on the account. largely due to some small caps, solar and banks. If we hit new highs, the rally will continue. but we have to reach there first.
If however, we trade sideways from here till 13000 or 13250 on the dow, it would be a good time to take majority of profits and wait for a pullback at which point I will bulk up again because by then the economy would have gotten over current fears.
When every joe schmoe(all of us) expects a recession, rarely does it happen. No one expected it in 1929, if they did, they would have pulled their money out. no one expected 87', again, if they did, they would have pulled out. and then 99-00 people never saw it coming.
now on the other hand, people have pulled so much out of stocks and sitting in pathetic money market. everyone is expecting it. they say recession is coming. oh really, when the fuck is it coming. It's like they mean a train is coming. please people, the economy is not that predictable. The little guy is always wrong.
Still bullish as a lot of stepticism out there. by the time people realize it's all horse shit, they will push the broad based indices even higher at which point I will slowly start unwinding. Obviously this means we will cross and hit new highs. otherwise sideways like I said.
If however, we trade sideways from here till 13000 or 13250 on the dow, it would be a good time to take majority of profits and wait for a pullback at which point I will bulk up again because by then the economy would have gotten over current fears.
When every joe schmoe(all of us) expects a recession, rarely does it happen. No one expected it in 1929, if they did, they would have pulled their money out. no one expected 87', again, if they did, they would have pulled out. and then 99-00 people never saw it coming.
now on the other hand, people have pulled so much out of stocks and sitting in pathetic money market. everyone is expecting it. they say recession is coming. oh really, when the fuck is it coming. It's like they mean a train is coming. please people, the economy is not that predictable. The little guy is always wrong.
Still bullish as a lot of stepticism out there. by the time people realize it's all horse shit, they will push the broad based indices even higher at which point I will slowly start unwinding. Obviously this means we will cross and hit new highs. otherwise sideways like I said.
congo you mentioned 45% interest on approx $125k....on top of that your paying interest on the the money you are borrowing from your broker and on top of that you are paying interest the 25k you borrowed off of your credit cards....
if you went all out on margin your paying approx, 5% with your broker.....$1500-$2500 a month
approx 4000-5000 to borrow 125k at 45%
and on top of that the 25k you borrowed off your credit cards which im sure they are charging you between 15-25%....
if you went all out on margin your paying approx, 5% with your broker.....$1500-$2500 a month
approx 4000-5000 to borrow 125k at 45%
and on top of that the 25k you borrowed off your credit cards which im sure they are charging you between 15-25%....
congo,
i,ve found the post very entertaining. i must say that i actually laughed when i first read it. only a newbie would trade with money from a credit card...and know that he is right. its not about being right/wrong, its about going with the market.
money management is key, and to go to a loan shark? why not just use margin, or options/futures for leverage? when you place such a large "bet" its pretty hard to be objective.
i do, however, agree with you that its not about the fundamentals or technicals per se but essentially about the psychology. and its about being ahead of the curve.
i,ve found the post very entertaining. i must say that i actually laughed when i first read it. only a newbie would trade with money from a credit card...and know that he is right. its not about being right/wrong, its about going with the market.
money management is key, and to go to a loan shark? why not just use margin, or options/futures for leverage? when you place such a large "bet" its pretty hard to be objective.
i do, however, agree with you that its not about the fundamentals or technicals per se but essentially about the psychology. and its about being ahead of the curve.
HI fellas,
Since first making this post on 3/18, I am up about 45% mostly from solars, small caps swing trades, oil and gas.
The only problem is that I had to pay roughly 40% of the profits in interest(see first post on interest rate for borrowing).
It's been an awesoem run for me. I have basically pocketed about $145k after interest and before taxes. I think I owe it to myself to relax for a bit now and just do some good old fashioned scalping on a daily basis.
I am all out at this point in time. I think the market still might have some left in it. But obviously it is never guaranteed. I will scalp and swing trade now with about $30k of the profits. I think that people might be getting in now which in turn will make it a suckers rally.
But like I said, if old highs are broken, I will be back in for an S&p upside of about 4-5%. Obviously my results are better than the S&P.
Any thoughts?
Since first making this post on 3/18, I am up about 45% mostly from solars, small caps swing trades, oil and gas.
The only problem is that I had to pay roughly 40% of the profits in interest(see first post on interest rate for borrowing).
It's been an awesoem run for me. I have basically pocketed about $145k after interest and before taxes. I think I owe it to myself to relax for a bit now and just do some good old fashioned scalping on a daily basis.
I am all out at this point in time. I think the market still might have some left in it. But obviously it is never guaranteed. I will scalp and swing trade now with about $30k of the profits. I think that people might be getting in now which in turn will make it a suckers rally.
But like I said, if old highs are broken, I will be back in for an S&p upside of about 4-5%. Obviously my results are better than the S&P.
Any thoughts?