The BTC 5-year chart is eerily similar to the Nasdaq of early 2000's.

OptionsOptionsOptions

OptionsOptionsOptions

  • I generated the 5-year QQQ chart from Yahoo Finance historical data for March 10, 1999 to March 10, 2004.
  • I remember those days well - The market gave traders a 2nd chance to bail before the big sell-off.

  • Now take a look at the current 5-year chart for BTC.
  • It is very similar to the QQQ chart after that 2nd chance to bail - but before the big sell-off.
    If BTC follows the Nasdaq of the early 2000's we are looking at a price of about $3000.


dddddddddddddd.png

QQQ 5-year chart - March 10, 1999 to March 10, 2004.



qqq.png

BTC current 5-year chart
 
I've said it a lot, but the best perspective I get on BTC is looking at the BITO ETF monthly chart. Since inception it's basically been 3 monthly candles straight down. Still a lot of trapped buyers in BTC, primed to be squeezed out. If we drop below 30k, could get seriously ugly.
 
Millionaire said:
Big crashes in the BTC price have happened several times since it was invented.
More...

The problem is that fans think this will ALWAYS lead to another much higher ATH. So the current hope is at least 100K+.

Going back to OP's observation, you don't even need a chart. I have been posting about just how the crypto space has been over saturated. The shoe shine boy has spoken about 2 months ago:

--Mortgages based on cryptos? How the fuck does that even compute?

--In the London underground there have been so many crypto ads that the mayor wanted to ban/limit them because they basically advertise gambling.

--A rinky dink banana republic in Latin America is trying to make Bitcoin the nation's currency, while the president is day trading it on mobile.

But the biggest influence is that cryptos follow the general market. So if that enters the bear territory, goodbye ATH or even current levels...
 
Millionaire said:
After the 2000 top the Nasdaq lost around 80%.
As of this weekend BTC is already 50% off the ATH.
Big crashes in the BTC price have happened several times since it was invented.
Nothing to write home about.
More...

This was before my time. Did we have the same macro environment? After the nasdaq top, was there a consensus about the cause?
 
I was able to get historical data for bitcoin back to September 2014 on Yahoo. Here are some quick stats:

Maximum drawdown of 83.4% on 12/15/2018 (yikes)
Current drawdown of 47.7% as of 1/23/2022
Last high was on 11/8/2021
Return YTD is -23.7%
Compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 80.7% over 7.4 years
Sharpe ratio = 1.16 (based on monthly returns)
Sortino ratio = 2.95 (based on monthly returns)
Ulcer index = 41.3% (weekly returns) -- stomach churning volatility
Winning days = 54.2%
Winning months = 55.7%
Winning years = 66.7%
Worst daily return = -37.2% on 3/12/2020
Best daily return = 25.3% on 12/7/2017
Most down days in a row = 7
Most up days in a row = 13

Despite the volatility, if you HODLed over the last few years you would've made a lot of money. Of course your blood pressure might be sky high.

To put the volatility in perspective, the ulcer index (which looks at drawdown performance over the period in question) is similar to the ulcer index for the QQQ since 1995. Due to the extreme drops in the QQQ in 2000 and 2008 its overall volatility is very high. My goal for my own strategies is an index below 5%.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top