The Bottoming Process

Quote from tradingbug:

Karl Denniger from http://market-ticker.org/ says that this is a debt driven recession. Not an inventory driven recession.

The only way to get out of a debt driven recession is to write off all the bad debt. He shows that we have a lot more debt that needs to be drained.

Who knows...he could be right...could be wrong.

From top to bottom though, if 666 was the bottom, then this cyclical bear market is shorter in duration than the last one. Seems kind of odd given that our economy is in much worse shape than the 2000 recession.
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and unless NFP numbers start to improve, on track to be worse
than early eighties recession.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

This global economic complex is now functioning in a progression that is such as to never have been seen before.

The crucial must elements include examining just why the causers of this dilemma cannot, rationally or any other way, contribute to its solution. (See Justin Fox to get up to speed on the causers)

To make money, given this unparalleled opportunity, it is very important to maintain a neutral bias. It is extremely important to use your foundation and rationally build from the comprehensive set of building blocks, the system (structure, process and results capability) that will maintain your proper orientation.

When you are an intimate part of something that is bigger than ever seen before, you must be sure to have ALL the nested fractals on the table. Only a comprehensive paradigm is capable of handling the complex of data that informs the global system.

There will be no anomolies that will mess up the unfolding. However, I do not believe it is possible any longer to depend upon one clearing or IB organization.

You may have started this thread in the worngly monitored forum.
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Your replies are always one of the ones I look forward to......thanks

You are right. I probably started this thread in the wrong forum and it should have been under Economics. Maybe the moderator might be kind enough to move it.

One quick Q regarding your last paragraph. When talking about clearing or IB organization, you are referring to ones brokerage right? IB stands for Investment Bank?

Going to read up on Fox and would love to hear any other posts regarding the subject.
 
Quote from Roman Candle:

2009 SPY weekly chart
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Thanks for the charts. In the 2003 weekly chart, there was one more leg down before breaking on up. I did think we were going to break below 800 before possibly taking out the 950 level. That is if we are going to have a U shaped bottom here/H&S.

Another thought is that this bear market might have 3 legs down which is typical from my understanding. The first leg was Oct 07- march 08, Second leg was June 08- march 09, and the third final leg could be the next one down. If this is the case, this final leg could be the death march. These legs might most easily be seen on a monthly timeframe.

So many possibilities....
 
Quote from tradingbug:

From top to bottom though, if 666 was the bottom, then this cyclical bear market is shorter in duration than the last one.
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Technically speaking, in October 2007 the party ended and as a result of our sinful ways we were placed in a hand basket and told to go to Hell. Despite several valiant attempts to repent and reverse our trip, the downward spiral continued, culminating in our arrival at the devil's doorstep (666). The devil took one look at us and said, "You and your party hat mortgages, CDS's, incomprehensible derivatives and $11 trillion deficit...get out of here! I don't need this!"

Technically speaking, this definitely indicates a bottom.
 
Just an FYI . . .

ET member Jumpshot and Michael Waggie are the same person and have been banned.

This idiot was literally talking to himself in "back-to-back" threads.

:D
 
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