The bottom-picking thread (smelly fingers optional)

Quote from Cutten:

I'm not sure picking it is what I'd wanna do ;)

Regarding the market, this big fast spike up brings in the distinct possibility things aren't going to melt down imminently. The last hour or two are going to be critical - if the price can hold up 1160+ by the close, then I think the trade would definitely be off. However if we sell off in the last 2 hours down to the lows or even lower, that would be ultra-bearish, to fall back so hard after such a big rally.

I would go with whichever direction prevails. Big selloff means the crash is still on. Strong close means fugeddaboutit.
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hey Mr Cutten, sounds like you've been around for a while, considering dothing cap, this fast move north is indicative of bearish price action, but its some almighty bounce for now anyways :-O
 
Quote from Cutten:


1) VIX above 30
2) Major corporate bankruptcies
3) Authorities (not just US) panicking and trying to intervene and calm nerves, stabilize the markets
4) Historic price falls (biggest one day drop since 9/11)
5) Even the gogo stocks and sectors are now getting hammered
6) Media going apeshit, loads of bearish headlines
7) Joe public panicking
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8) no bail-out for now

what da ya think?? the day is upon us.....
 
Trin hit 4.44....vix up to ?48 ... can't imagine sentiment any gloomier/fear any higher.

IMHO, we rally hard on Wednesday when vote is passed....

Imagine market will go sideways tomorrow, if not drifting abit higher.
 
Quote from sumosam:

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IMHO, we rally hard on Wednesday when vote is passed....

Imagine market will go sideways tomorrow, if not drifting abit higher.
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they announced they are going on vacation til thursday
 
Quote from dsq:

they announced they are going on vacation til thursday
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Perfect.....the banking system (meaning the financial resources for every business and consumer in the U.S.) is going down the toilet, and they're off to party and celebrate the Jewish New Year.
 
Quote from sandygray66:

Perfect.....the banking system (meaning the financial resources for every business and consumer in the U.S.) is going down the toilet, and they're off to party and celebrate the Jewish New Year.
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It's almost as if the politicians realize that the situation with the true economy is not quite as frantic as they would like the public to believe. Hmmm...
 
Quote from BoyBrutus:

Many posts and chest pounding.

Any long positions?

I guess that’s what separates Buffett from the boys.
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Sure, i'm buying selectively. Have no idea when we will bottom. This looks like it's it until after the election assuming a bailout comes in a few days. I expect the S&P to eventually get down to the 800-850 level. But i'm buying some stuff, and have been happy to be selling puts anywhere with the vix above 30. Great opportunity here. Some of the things i like right now are the beaten down commodities, NHYDY, STO, AAUK, etc. and the bank stock UCBH. I also like selling FTO april puts when the underlying is below 18. In the main, i'm leaning toward non-US. Concerned about the dollar because of monetization of US debt. Obviously, i'm talking here from an intermediate to long term investment perspective, not short term trading. I only trade futures short term.
 
Quote from ScottD:

It's almost as if the politicians realize that the situation with the true economy is not quite as frantic as they would like the public to believe. Hmmm...
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You give them far too much credit for knowing what's going on in the financial systems in this country.

It'd be far more accurate to say they are ignorant of what's going on in the true economy (hiding behind the mantra of not wanting to help the fat cats on Wall Street, when in fact this credit crisis is affecting the financial foundation of the entire economy), so they feel they have time to dither and play in their partisan politics.
 
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