The bottom-picking thread (smelly fingers optional)

I tend to agree on a late week bottom. Joe public needs some time to have this sink on a call their broker and panic sell. Looking at large caps the have not been smacked too badly. Also starting to look at S. Africa.

Akuma
 
Right now I'm focusing on CEF's which are trading at aggressive discounts and today are possibly going to get absolutely hammered from panic sales by retail investors/retirees (who these things are popular among). Yields quite attractive if they stay the same and some of these have just gotten cut recently.

Its the year end tax loss play, but early. Same thing happened last august, but I wasn't prepared enough to participate.

Averaging in, but that's more of a function of me not knowing where the bottom might be here than anything else. If you disdain at such behavior, pick your entry point with conviction!

I agree that there will be a time to go long but much much more downside risk than upside here.

Full disclosure: Long ADX, MGU, BGR, JHP. May buy others by the end of the day.
 
i bought some of the banks, the ones that i think are less exposed or has made adequate provisions to the toxic stuffs, if i guess correctly :(
 
Quote from Cutten:

Commodity stocks should benefit when we bottom, I agree. XLE/OIH/MOO are also worth a look. In fact they could outperform commodities, because they have suffered a double-whammy of falling stock prices and falling commodity prices. We could see these stocks rise 50% in 2-3 days from the lows. But it will be painful if you buy them early :)

Do you have any specific stock picks in the steel/coal/fertilizer space? Would POT, MT, BTU, be a reasonable selection?
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Great thread and great original post Cutten.

I like MT just because I have personally been following it for a while, I don't know much about BTU. As for fertilizer, I've always liked MOS and MON.

I'll look into BTU.
 
Instead of using contrarian indicators I rather take a look at statistical analysis. this guy is the king of this. his research indicates that oversold conditions going into fed meeting tend to lead to rallies on that day but they dont have persistence going forward
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/
There is also the CBI indicator(his proprietary vix) when it prints 6-7+ it leads to a rally pretty much everytime, its only a matter of when
 
Interesting opening today. this is the type of action one typically sees in those bottom rallies, but I'm not pulling the trigger till we get some kind of news catalyst
 
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