The Bollinger Bandit Strikes Again

[profitseer]

as a matter of fact, the dmi crossover is impossible to trade on it's own because it will whipsaw you to death. But it has never paid me to go against it, so that is why I use it.

Now I see, waiting for a breakout misses many good crossover trades, but almost EVERY SINGLE TIME the bad whipsaw crossovers occur well within the channel.

The dmi crossover is usually my first warning sign that I am gonna get my head handed to me, but maybe next time, if I get a crossover inside the channel, I will stick around for one more laugh.

I was going to try to make some observations on the bands in conjunction with the channels, but I don't know if I will get to it this weekend.

The harder I work at night, the easier my day goes.

 

[profitseer]

well, first time through,

1. Price tags of bands well within channels are better fades than trends.

2. Breakouts (of the channels) inside of bands are usually duds.

3. Best breakouts occur when channels and bands are close.

If anybody else except me is fascinated, take a look and see if that's what you see.

I can see why you like those channels Breakout. There is a lot of action out there. (That must be where the "in crowd" hangs out.)

 

[Breakout]

Originally posted by profitseer


So far, I have n period 30 and dmi 13. Almost all breakouts are accompanied by crossovers. But the ones that aren't don't amount to much, and the ones where the breakout and the crossover are almost simultaneous are the best in terms of reliability. And that's as far as I've gotten so far.

Hmmmm...sounds interesting. I'll definitely be checking it out
on some charts.

Originally posted by profitseer
oh yeah, I forgot to tell you. Fairly awesome system when you get a good breakout is use the 50ema as a stop. Got a friend who when he was young, went short NQ on a breakout and the 50ema didn't stop him out till he was an old man.

LOL....

Originally posted by profitseer
well, first time through,

1. Price tags of bands well within channels are better fades than trends.

2. Breakouts (of the channels) inside of bands are usually duds.

3. Best breakouts occur when channels and bands are close.

Good stuff profitseer...looks like you're going to keep me
up all night!...


If I make any interesting observations tonight, I'll post
them. Talk to you later, buddy.

 

[Breakout]

Hey sunnyskies...


Here's a great chart to show when to "TAKE A BREAK"...lol

Whenever I start a day like this and have 3 losers in a row,
I take a break!

I'll probably come back around 1:00 or so, and maybe try
a couple of more trades. But, for now I'm going to focus on something else.

 

[ChrisM]

Originally posted by profitseer
Bollinger bands bring bad boy bukoo bucks...Baby!

The secret is, I switched from macd to rsi as a confirming indicator. Well, it's not really a secret. You can go to www.bollingerbands.com and they tell you exactly how to do it.

I've got a whole box of tools. If I would ever bother to read the directions I suppose I could get most of them working.

If you're trying this at home, I would start small, like just one contract. Because you start to see some high risk high probability trades when you stare at those bands long enough. And my 2 cents, don't think I would try it on any chart shorter than 3 or longer than 5 min.

Anytime I hear someone trading well know indicators I get deja vu, like - what the hell am I doing for so long ? . all
But after all I`m back, alive and well, trading only one I developed myself under specific circumstances only

 

[profitseer]

I'm using the channels just like you taught me.
4 min chart/dmi 13/adx=30/n=30 about 9:03 chicago time
1. prices tag lower band
2. Channel and band are close
3.Bear dmi crossover and fantastic upward slope on ADX
4.Breakout of lower channel
5. I'm too scared so I wait for 20sma to cross below 50ema.
6.Trading one contract with no money stop, ATR too high to try a 2 pt stop
7. Lower band moves too far below channel so I stop myself out at 634 and don't take the second break down.

You have the right ideas. I know it. And don't think I don't know how it feels. It feels like you wished you'd eaten a bigger breakfast so you could puke even more!

Good Trading and Thanks for Sharing

 

[limitdown]

these comments are just like watching a top flight game of tennis where the volley never goes out of bounds and the fury in the eyes of the opposing players intensifies with each stake that's raised and each volley that's returned.

You had a $700 profit on 8/15 following the charting pattern and example, and ended up with a $500+ loss after the nasty sell off that occurred.

That's the problem with charting. You essentially are driving your objectives forward by looking backwards. Daytrading, prop trading and other forms of professional / floor trading discards all those "investor" type tools and runs with indicators (secrets of floor traders) that are co-assistive instead of tracing in pattern.

Normally the experience to trade comes after significant losses and then the gains come in. Dumb Luck principles state that there are some who have dumb luck and win first, then incur losses off those gains, instead of against their original principle. Hence, net, net, net, they're able to last longer in the game.

Most traders I've read about would have taken such a whipsaw and given in the towel, and did some serious sould searching. Knowing that those are real bullets that we're firing really comes home to traders whence they realize that you can loose just as easily as gain.

Chartist beware.

 

[Breakout]

Originally posted by limitdown

You had a $700 profit on 8/15 following the charting pattern and example, and ended up with a $500+ loss after the nasty sell off that occurred.

Hi limitdown...thanks for the post. There's a couple of things I don't agree with though.


Yes, I had a $700 profit, but it wasn't following a "Charting pattern". It was after a series of 4 succesful "Trades". Yes, I
ended up with a $500 dollar loss, but it wasn't due to the
"sell-off" that occured. It was due to about 9 other "Trades"
after the sell-off. And, it really had nothing to do with the trades, it was because I got greedy, and didn't stop while I
was ahead.


That's the problem with charting. You essentially are driving your objectives forward by looking backwards.



Actually, trading support and resistance levels is not charting. I could just as easily write the numbers down on paper
and trade off of these. It's just easier to see and keep track of
when the computer does it for you. And I'm not sure I agree
that "driving your objectives forward by looking backwards" is
such a "problem". We can learn alot by looking in the past.

 

[Breakout]

Originally posted by ChrisM


Anytime I hear someone trading well know indicators I get deja vu, like - what the hell am I doing for so long ? . all
But after all I`m back, alive and well, trading only one I developed myself under specific circumstances only

No offense ChrisM...but, odds are, whatever that indicator
is you say you developed has probably already been around
for years...just a different name.

For example...Larry Williams came out with his Percentage R
indicator. Lay it on top of a Stochastic FastK sometime, same
thing.

 

[Breakout]

Originally posted by profitseer
I'm using the channels just like you taught me.
4 min chart/dmi 13/adx=30/n=30 about 9:03 chicago time
1. prices tag lower band
2. Channel and band are close
3.Bear dmi crossover and fantastic upward slope on ADX
4.Breakout of lower channel
5. I'm too scared so I wait for 20sma to cross below 50ema.
6.Trading one contract with no money stop, ATR too high to try a 2 pt stop
7. Lower band moves too far below channel so I stop myself out at 634 and don't take the second break down.

You have the right ideas. I know it. And don't think I don't know how it feels. It feels like you wished you'd eaten a bigger breakfast so you could puke even more!

Good Trading and Thanks for Sharing

Profitseer...you're getting out of hand dude...lol

You're making something that's simple into something
complicated. Just look for support and resistance
levels. When there broken on high volume, go for it!

Put a 5 or 6 tick stop in and if you don't get stopped
out try to get a 3 to 1 ratio.

The best traders in the world are only right half the time, and
that's on a good day!

You're trying to be right everytime, and it just aint gonna happen.