Quote from gmst:
I explained this very clearly in point 2) in my post#3 on this thread. I can't believe I have to explain it again. Alright, lets do it one more time.
Logic:
Hitting 250$ on any given day is easy. But trader has to average 250$. And he will have losing days at loss limit. He will also have losing days less than loss limit. So, to compensate for these max. losses, he needs big winners and putting a trail will not let the trader get big winners. If you are trading 5 cars, 500$ translates to a 2 pt move in your favor, and then 50% trail means a 1 pt retrace. (And please don't tell me that trading 5 cars on a 50k account is over leverage and gambling. You are definitely under-risked if you are trading 1 car for 10k with such strict risk limits and such steep profit objectives.)
I hope below example sounds reasonable to you.
The trader needs to average 250$, his loss limit is 1000$.
So, out of 20 days, he makes money on 14 days, loses on 6 days.
On 2 losing days, he hits loss limit (say -950$). So, PL = -1900
On 2 losing days, his average loss is 600$. So, PL = -1200
On 2 losing days, his average loss is 300$. So, PL = -600
So, total Loss = -3700
Total PL required = 5000
So, now from 14 winning days, he needs to make 5000+3700 = 8700
which is 621 per day. To average 621 per day, he needs 1000$ to 1500$ days, because he will also have +200 and + 400 days. So, 500$ is not an outlier for him, a 1500$ is an outlier for him. To get this 1500$ outlier, 50% trail kicking at 500$ won't cut it.
I don't know what else I can do to make anyone understand it. Its so simple.
Finally, why so much stickiness with 50% trail limit kicking in at 500$ level and why do you bother - you are not Patak. Right?
I bet if Patak makes the trail kicking limit to 1000$, it will result into a increase in the success rate of its traders. Of course Patak won't make it if Patak's true aim is to let people scalp so that they can make money in comms.
Enough waste of my time on this thread. We are going round in circles.
Quote from Maverick74:
They are not. I'll bet you a dime to a dollar that less then 1% of the guys that do that combine make it on their first try.
Quote from Maverick74:
OK, I know I'm going to get attacked here. This might sound harsh, but dude, if you are losing that kind of money, no one is ever going to back you. And I don't mean "you" personally. I'm not try to make this about you. But that guy you are describing is not going to get backed. This is what I was talking about earlier about becoming consistent. Look, trading is very hard. I think all of us can find common ground there. The fact of the matter is, most guys here will never get hired by a prop firm, never get 100% backed and probably never be even profitable trading their own account. That is the sad reality.
Here's the deal. Trading is very very very easy provided you never have to use stops. Provided you never have to control losses. Provided you never have to exit losing positions. Anyone can trade under those conditions. What makes trading actually difficult is having to honor stops, controlling losses and getting out of bad positions. If you are losing 2% of your account on a regular basis daytrading the math will NEVER work for you. Not you personally, but whoever. It just won't work. Please don't lecture me on profit factors and all that stuff. I've heard the sales pitch far too many times by guys at my old firm trying to get backed.
Quote from volente_00:
Come on Mav, if you are really a trader then I don't see how you think this is a great gig
Quote from volente_00:
So 200 combiners a month paying $160-$350 a month with 99% failing = ~500k risk free profit
Back the 1 % who do meet your strict rules with the profit made from those who failed the combine and make them sign a 1 year contract taking 30-40% of their profits and you are forced to always keep 5k -10k of your profits in the account as a cushion to protect against a drawdown all to be able to trade $2000 -$7500 worth of intraday margin while they back others with your trading profits ?
I have to admit this is a great business model for the owners.
Come on Mav, if you are really a trader then I don't see how you think this is a great gig
Quote from volente_00:
So 200 combiners a month paying $160-$350 a month with 99% failing = ~500k yearly risk free profit
Quote from gmst:
LOOOLLLLLLLL
Have you really gone nuts maverick! I presented you with logic and a detailed example, and this is your best response!
Just to put things back to track and expose your arbitrary reply:
On a 50k account, 1k is 2%. In my example, the trader was hitting 2% (950$) on 2 days out of 20. That means he is losing 2% of his account on 10% of days, not on a REGULAR basis.
Remember, the trader is profitable on 70% of days. Is this not consistent? what is consistency in your book - 90% positive days - you think guys who make money on 90% days - only they get backed in true prop shops and make money?
MAN - go over and look at Lescor's journal and see on how many weeks in a year he made money and how many weeks he lost money. Then go and see on how many days he made money and how many days he lost money. 70% profitable days is extremely good.
Reality is - People trade with 2% trade risk, and easily they can have 2 losing trades in a row for a 4% down day. Really, you need to think before hitting reply. You are doing a disservice to your own ET credibility by writing without thinking through.
Quote from Maverick74:
There is no way they have 200 paid combines running a month. I'll take that bet right now and bet Michael the first beer on that!
I never said it was a great gig. Some of you guys are not listening. I wrote an entire post earlier on this thread about the options available to traders today. None of them are good. The odds are horrible at every option. But most guys don't have much of a choice. They will NOT get hired. They will NOT be able to start a fund. They will NOT work for a big bank. And they most likely are seriously under capitalized to fund themselves.
What should they do? Probably go back to school and start over. But for the ones that have that hunger, that ambition, that belief in themselves that they are NOT one of those statistics, then maybe, maybe this is a viable option for them.
And don't even tell me with a straight face you would tell a guy to fund a 2k account at Amp Futures and start trading futures to make a living. Keep this conversation serious.
Quote from Dobbes:
I'm getting a lot more PM's than I can physically type responses to, so I figured I'd just make a comprehensive post here to detail my experience.
I first started with Patak pretty close to when they first got up and running. I did 3 combines. Things were different then. The chat applet was ghetto, the combines were free, and you could talk to Mike (the principal, a floor trader at the CME) directly.
Then I took a 3 month break for summer. When I came back, the topsteptrader.com branch had been spun off. They were now charging a deposit to 'make sure traders took the evaluation period seriously.' It was something like $40 (now I think it is double). At this time, they wanted you to do ~ 60% on your account in a month to get selected (it is now 80%). I did 3 more combines in this period. I only paid for the first one. The other times my performance was high enough that my deposit was rolled over. I cleared the 60% threshhold twice during my evaluations and was told to keep trading, which caused me to dip below the balance.
Passing selection means they stake you with a 10k account. At the time, they didn't post this information, but it is now public here:
http://www.topsteptrader.com/LiveTraderSetup.aspx
The good part is that you get staked. They like to play this up as you having 'no risk.' But the truth is, anytime you have profits in your account in excess of your original stake, you are playing with and risking your money anyways.
Part of my decision to quit was this math: If you do a banner year and get +800%, you are still making a paltry amount of money, and the splits give you incentive to maintain and attempt to grow the account with them. Myself, I was looking for something I could use as a career... busting my ass, being in the top 10% of traders and taking home <50k/yr pre-tax under a best case scenario just didn't seem worth it to me. Having your money locked up in an account and being forced to take an unfavorable split to buy groceries and pay rent didn't seem like a good setup. I know another prop, Trillium is a lot better about making sure their people have money to meet ongoing expenses.
I was also having trouble trading the way the wanted me to. They want you to trade intraday because a 10k account can't be margined well overnight. The software, T4, also had problems handling more complicated trades than outrights.
Anyways, Patak is making most of its money off of people rushing into combines and getting crushed. Through the chat, I saw hundreds of traders wash out. They have no interest or infrastructure to help you succeed. You have no access to senior traders, and Eddy and Mike will only give you vague and useless advice.
Think about how the model works: They target college students and post on college job boards. These are people that by definition have minor and informal at best trading experience. They then set a very high bar of short-term performance, charge them what they can get away with, and let them flop. Hopefully, they get hooked on the game and come back for seconds.
It is as legitimate as a US prop firm gets, but that doesn't make it a good deal. If you're looking for a career in financial markets, look elsewhere.
Quote from Maverick74:
No, once again gmst, you are acting like a child. I see you are reverting back to your old self before you started acting semi-mature. I never said a trader can't make it losing 2% a day, twice a month. I said you will never get BACKED with those numbers.
Do you have any fucking clue what you are up against in the Chicago HFT community. These firms that hire and back traders run algos that make money 240 out of 250 days a year. These firms measure their down days in basis points. If you are going to knock on their door and try to convince them to allocate some of their money away from their algos to a point and click discretionary trader who loses 2% of his nut twice a month on a regular basis daytrading, you are nuts.
I'm not saying you can't trade your own account that way. I'm saying that no prop firm is going to return your phone call. That is a fact!