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The Biggest Rally In Stocks Since 1998 Is Coming
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
If anyone is getting sea legs because of today's action, abandon ship.
The thesis is intact.
The fact that Boone Picken's singularly caused oil to spike and stocks to drop today gives me nothing but confidence equities are the place to be.
The thesis is intact.
The fact that Boone Picken's singularly caused oil to spike and stocks to drop today gives me nothing but confidence equities are the place to be.
if the market does take off, we would have been better off going long rather than short, at the inception of your get the hell out thread around 1350 spx. unless of course you were able to time the bottom perfectly to cover
This thread is short term bearish as a contrary indicator because the same people who thought we were going to 1100 several months ago- now think we will be staging a huge rally (after we've already rallied 10-15% off the bottom of course)
Quote from PaulRon:
This thread reminds me of surf's $600 gold call
yeah, some people dont realize that they are betting on a scenario that is yet to happen this century.
PEs have been contracting since 2000, history indicates that these cycles(pe expansion and contraction) last around 15-20 years, with a earnings recession already in place(specially ex-oil) to think the market will go up is to think that a downtrend in place since 2000 will stop and a pe expansion scenario will start.
In 90-91 that happened but there was a multiyear pe expansion trend at that point plus even the bulls agree that this real estate downturn is worse than that one
Quote from trader_arb:
if the market does take off, we would have been better off going long rather than short, at the inception of your get the hell out thread around 1350 spx. unless of course you were able to time the bottom perfectly to cover
I'm not going to debate that call with you incessantly.
The simple fact is it was inherently timely. I started it on 2/28/2008 (go back and check), and I can assure you that I saved myself 6 figures by following my own advice.
Chart 2/29/08 forward.
Did I re-enter at the perfect time after the sell-off? No. I'd be lying to claim otherwise.
But saving myself that nice chunk of change made it all worth while.
On a separate note, I said earlier in this thread that this will be a stock picker's market - the indexes fell sharply today, and with 15 open long positions, I was down approximately 1/3 of the average of the indexes. Hardly a ripple.