Crash like the last one? We were at the same levels on 8/02 as well. Got there the same way too. Hmm.
The Biggest Payroll # Of Your Life
- Thread starter Pa(b)st Prime
- Start date
Haven't looked at the initial reactions. But, since about mid 06 the relationship between the two has completely diverged.
I.e. non farm payroll down -> stock market up.
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Go figure.
I.e. non farm payroll down -> stock market up.
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Go figure.
Yo Pabst....I've noticed that you're always looking for the "crash."
IMO...One of the problems with seasoned traders is that the longer you trade the more you know. The more you know the more cynical you become. The more cynical you become the more bearish you get. The more bearish you get the more you miss that the market has an +9% drift over the long term.
Trading Black Swans are a sure way to BK...over the long term. In fact there's nothing better than hitting it hard on the upside after a bad number. Vanguard and Fido doncha know.
That being said.....I'm always hoping for a 20 handle gap to fade.
IMO...One of the problems with seasoned traders is that the longer you trade the more you know. The more you know the more cynical you become. The more cynical you become the more bearish you get. The more bearish you get the more you miss that the market has an +9% drift over the long term.
Trading Black Swans are a sure way to BK...over the long term. In fact there's nothing better than hitting it hard on the upside after a bad number. Vanguard and Fido doncha know.
That being said.....I'm always hoping for a 20 handle gap to fade.
I think it's pretty safe to say that there will be an inverse relationship between NFP and the market this time.
NFP drops hard, the market will rally because a fed cut is a shoe-in. NFP is good or blows out the number, the market will crash because the media heads will roar about how the fed can't possibly cut with such a number.
NFP drops hard, the market will rally because a fed cut is a shoe-in. NFP is good or blows out the number, the market will crash because the media heads will roar about how the fed can't possibly cut with such a number.
Another way to look at the difficulty in short term correlation. Notice the downtrend in data to march 07 preceded the bottom of the correction, as well as a 3 month rally. Likewise, although the last Friday report's initial reaction was down,
it preceded a strong 3 day rally. However, June and July numbers marked local tops in retrospect.
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Also, notice every reaction is not guaranteed to have a volatile response (ex.. jan/feb).
it preceded a strong 3 day rally. However, June and July numbers marked local tops in retrospect.
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Also, notice every reaction is not guaranteed to have a volatile response (ex.. jan/feb).