The BIG Picture

Thanks Banjo for the tip about the cycles...I forgot to mention that on the flip side, the market tends to periodically visit that long term 7% growth curve which is currently at 1459 or approximately 24% lower from where we are now. So don't let a 20% drop from these levels surprise you as it would be a perfectly normal and moderate reaction by historical standards.
 
Chubbly said:
Since Dec 30 we have lost approx 6-7%
To put that in perspective going back to June 1986 this would rate at the 20th worst month out of in that timeframe of the past 356 months and we are only 1/3 done the month.

So even if we stop at this level, this is in the top 5% worst months since 1986

But then again, it did shoot up approx 9% in Oct 2015 making it one of the best months on record.
More...

Yes, not that surprising...the market is one "v" reversal after another...
 
Crude.jpg


Here is the BIG picture for Crude Oil...any thoughts or insights for this one?
 
I would like to see a crude chart corrected for inflation. $30/barrel in today's dollars doesn't equal $30/barrel in 2003.
So we are relatively much lower than 2003
 
You might also familiarize yourself with Hurst cycles. When cycles are properly applied and come into sync it's very powerful. Play with time cycles, months, days etc. See what happens when they sync, lack of opposing energy to each other. Of course nothing stands alone.
 
The Value Line Geometric index isn't shown frequently in investment circles. Some believe it is more representative of what an investor would actually make with a long term investment than with the standard arithmetic averages.

uaR10zB.jpg


According to this index, there is what appears to be a triple top instead of new highs, and a bear mkt is currently underway.

Food for thought.
 
Chubbly said:
Since Dec 30 we have lost approx 6-7%
To put that in perspective going back to June 1986 this would rate at the 20th worst month out of in that timeframe of the past 356 months and we are only 1/3 done the month.

So even if we stop at this level, this is in the top 5% worst months since 1986

But then again, it did shoot up approx 9% in Oct 2015 making it one of the best months on record.
More...


This is now the 5th worst month since June 1986 so we are now in the top 1.4% worst months since 1986
 
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