The Big Bear Bet

[diogenes7]

This is an interesting butterfly trade; make of it what you will.

Some rich Dude or Dudette put up almost $20,000,000 this week to enter a butterfly debit trade on the SPY. The bet will pay off $250,000,000 if the S&P 500 is at or near 2400 shortly after the election this fall.

The trade is a SPY November 20th 205/240/275 Put Butterfly that carried a $2.65 debit. It consists of 70,000 contracts in the 205 puts, 140,000 contracts in the 240 puts, and 70,000 contracts in the 275 puts. The trade shows up in the SPY November 20 open interest figures.

Now that's a bear with a big bankroll.

 

[S2007S]

Well could be a ferocious bull with much dollars to hedge against their billions in long positions. ...

2400 hmmm. That could happen if trump losses...but I dont see that happening.

 

[Atikon]

Looking at protest and fed programs running out, thats a bet with good odds

 

[S2007S]

Looking at protest and fed programs running out, thats a bet with good odds

Fed programs running out???

Unmmmm. The fed has UNLIMITED resources! Thats what got the markets up over 40% from march lows.

 

[gaussian]

Fed programs running out???

Unmmmm. The fed has UNLIMITED resources! Thats what got the markets up over 40% from march lows.

The fed has a natural limiter in what they can do by virtue of having to maintain reserve status as a currency. Too much effort spent pumping the market will see countries basing their currency on the yuan in short order.

 

[KCalhoun]

I still think the trade of the year is shorting the market on weakness when that happens.

My swingtrading strategy for that is to scale into inverses at multiday highs. SQQQ TZA TVIX FAZ SPXS SDOW

 

[Relentless]

I still think the trade of the year is shorting the market on weakness when that happens.

My swingtrading strategy for that is to scale into inverses at multiday highs. SQQQ TZA TVIX FAZ SPXS SDOW

Trade of the year was getting short in late February and then getting long in late March.

You're hunting leftovers.

 

[S2007S]

Trade of the year was getting short in late February and then getting long in late March.

You're hunting leftovers.

You are pointing this out wellllllllll after the fact....who the hell knew to get short in February, in fact no one said to get short in February as the markets were breaking to new historical highs daily and most putting out predictions for the s&p to go to 4000 and who the hell said get long in march? All said after the fact.....

Any solid predictions now? Let's call the plays right now....right this second for the remainder of the year.

 

[KCalhoun]

You are pointing this out wellllllllll after the fact....who the hell knew to get short in February, in fact no one said to get short in February as the markets were breaking to new historical highs daily and most putting out predictions for the s&p to go to 4000 and who the hell said get long in march? All said after the fact.....

Any solid predictions now? Let's call the plays right now....right this second for the remainder of the year.

I learned the hard way not to predict, but instead to react....

Here I called market top January 24th, a month too early, I made money trading inverses February and March

I thought early April was a dead cat bounce and we'd soon retest March lows, I was wrong. Lost money bottomfishing inverses.

I think this market is overbought, on thin ice and will crash hard soon, but I've thought that, incorrectly, for weeks.

 

[Sekiyo]

Trade of the year was getting short in late February and then getting long in late March.

You're hunting leftovers.

This is not the trade of the year.
It’s the hindsight trade of the year.

Well done.
Bravo.