The best traders in ET

[GloriaBrown]

Quote from dbphoenix:

You're confusing the value of the company with the value of the stock. Until recently, companies were valued on the basis of their book value and their earnings and their dividends. Then when mutual funds got into the act, growth rates got into it, and these were used to justify extraordinary PE ratios. During the internet boom, there was even something called the "PV", or "price to vision ratio". None of which suggests that the price of the company's stock has anything to do with the value of the company. Again during the internet boom, even CEOs stated quite plainly that the stocks of their companies were ridiculously overpriced.

None of this has anything to do with the subject of the thread, of course. I brought it up only to define the traditional forms of analysis: fundamental (Graham) and technical (Wyckoff, de Villiers, Schabacker, Elliott). But put in another perhaps simpler way, a company is at bottom worth its book value. This becomes most obvious when the price of the stock has dropped so far that it's unlisted.

It is unfortunate that fundamental analysis has become so often corrupted that it acts as a sales tool to justify whatever the analysts have pegged as the value of the stock, but that's less the fault of FA than it is of its practitioners. Those who are investing for the long term would be better served by focusing on the books rather than the latest stock quotes.

Daytraders, of course, or short-term swing traders, needn't concern themselves with any of this.

Both FA and "TA without backtest or subjective TA" are useless.

For FA, if you are not insiders, you never know the real data, no matter government data or corp data because gov and corp almost always release not real data to make public believes what they want the direction to be. There are too many grey area for big corp to do so, while government is the higher level of the country and they can do whatever they want. You may think only country like China releases fake government data, but do you think usa government would really give you real data?

For TA, subjective kind of Elliott wave is nothing more than a marketing tool in history then nowadays is more like a religion, it only works if you believe your subjective mind has some supernatural ability. Elliott wave works for someone just believes if he reads a book saying Elliott wave works like bible, but it is not helping people to make money, it just makes people believe themselves they have learn something that they can use their eyeball to decide what will happen in the market.

For other TA that can be backtested, backtest result can tell if there is predictive power or not.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from karoshiman:

True, so we should keep this short.

Actually I plan to stop. I hadn't intended to offer an education in fundamental analysis. That can be found by googling. My intent, as I said earlier, was to clarify the purposes behind the two types of analysis. If I failed to do so, then I'll just have to move on since no one will read this after tomorrow anyway, and few will care regardless. If a few people were enlightened in any way, that's enough.

 

[GloriaBrown]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Actually I plan to stop. I hadn't intended to offer an education in fundamental analysis. That can be found by googling. My intent, as I said earlier, was to clarify the purposes behind the two types of analysis. If I failed to do so, then I'll just have to move on since no one will read this after tomorrow anyway, and few will care regardless. If a few people were enlightened in any way, that's enough.

As I said earlier, FA is useless except you are insider of gov/big corp since you never get the real correct data to do analysis if you are an outsider like normal people. Example, US government really releases the correct employee data? Ho yeah~

 

[Humpy]

So to cut to the chase why doesn't someone start a live trading journal and invite the " big dicks " to show off how good they really are in real time ??
Not just reminiscences of past glories or idle boasting.

 

[justrading]

Quote from Humpy:

So to cut to the chase why doesn't someone start a live trading journal and invite the " big dicks " to show off how good they really are in real time ??
Not just reminiscences of past glories or idle boasting.

Nitro just started 2, TA and Quant if I remember correctly.

 

[dealmaker]

Quote from GloriaBrown:

As I said earlier, FA is useless except you are insider of gov/big corp since you never get the real correct data to do analysis if you are an outsider like normal people. Example, US government really releases the correct employee data? Ho yeah~

Go to EDGAR pay your $89/ company and you will get what all the hedge funds, banks, private equity and the SEC gets or take your chances with free stuff...
Obviously if you are using FA, you are not day or short term swing trader...

 

[Paul500]

Big egos = Big losses.

 

[GloriaBrown]

Quote from dealmaker:

Go to EDGAR pay your $89/ company and you will get what all the hedge funds, banks, private equity and the SEC gets or take your chances with free stuff...
Obviously if you are using FA, you are not day or short term swing trader...

There is no real insider news provide to public, period.

 

[Handle123]

Quote from GloriaBrown:

As I said earlier, FA is useless except you are insider of gov/big corp since you never get the real correct data to do analysis if you are an outsider like normal people. Example, US government really releases the correct employee data? Ho yeah~

FA is certainly not useless, but it is like chart reading, watching the volume on the Dome or using other TA, the more experience you have the better you understand the areas one studies. Back in the 70's, before advent of home PC, you had to study the financials, even doing what is now simple TA was tough back then. So many are bitching over low interest rates, if you were able to read the financials and stuck your dough in solid stocks that pay dividends, you could be making over 5%.

Just like New highs/lows, many don't use this information in their longer term trading. And although I only see value in New lows, others more bright than me can read value in both. Now granted many will say it only shows after the fact, but if you use the information a month after you believe a major low is in overall Market, lines up real well in Buying Low.

 

[dealmaker]

Quote from GloriaBrown:

There is no real insider news provide to public, period.

I am talking reliable numbers for you to do analysis with, if you want inside information call your good friend Rajat Gupta perhaps next time he is in a board meeting he can call you instead of Raj.