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http://www.tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_easiest_e-mini-640758.html
When traders talk about trading E-mini futures,
E-mini S&P 500 or âESâ is the first thought that usually comes to mind. It is by
far the most popular stock-index market traded, by retail traders and
institutions alike. That widespread popularity is not necessarily a good thing.
Program trading arbitrage attempts at capturing the difference in price values
per tick between E-mini and full-size S&P contracts creates a lot of sideways
buzz in price movement. Other program trading efforts by funds and institutions
involve arbing the futures against cash index pricing with SPY shares, futures
against cash SPX options, futures against baskets of big-cap stocks and a
plethora of other complex spread equations.
That type of layered congestion keeps the E-mini
S&P constantly retracing its steps. Between directional swings of price movement
up or down, there is consolidation with any market. Thatâs how the pattern of
price action plays out⦠consolidation leads to directional expansion, which
then settles into consolidation. That cycle repeats itself over and over again,
through all time frames and conditions. In the case of E-mini S&P futures,
consolidation is created and emphasized by any number of arbitrage programs
playing tug-of-war with the tapes. Itâs not like the index is going through the
usual progression of accumulation, distribution and rest. The ES is constantly
being pushed around in a small sideways range by sideways trading strategies
designed to arb temporary price discrepancies.
What does this mean to retail traders?
Many things. Because the ES contains so much sideways
congested price movement or ânoiseâ, a lot of E-mini traders direct their focus on
that. They work really hard at developing strategies that capture mere ticks of
profit as successful trades. All manner of complex initial stop-loss, multiple
contracts scaled out of to exit and bigger risk / smaller reward ratios are
toyed with in search of success.
With very few exceptions, retail traders all
fail miserably in these attempts. The concept of trading tiny scalps within
sideways noise is just an illusion, not a viable path to success.
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