The Beginning is the End is the Beginning: A Look at Recessions

[Altavest_Erik]

Key Points

• Recessions are not back-to-back negative GDP quarters; they’re instead defined using four key coincident economic indicators.
  
  
• Bear markets often overlap with recessions (and typically lead them), but not always.
  
  
• It’s important to distinguish between leading and lagging economic indicators and to focus at least as much on trend as level.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-cen...beginning-is-end-is-beginning-look-recessions

 

[Stockolio]

A recession is when Consumer Debt reaches maximum sustainable level's, economy slowly grinds to a halt through a chain reaction of less capital flow, what amplifies this one is Corporate Debt levels as well. In my opinion a recession starts 6 months after the first sign of Real Estate Deflation in local economy

Here is what we have in the world at the moment. World Consumer Debt levels all time high, which means Worldwide consumption has been slowing down and will keep plunging, example Asian Markets plunging Imports at end 2018. World Corporate Debt levels all time high, which means Corporations cannot afford to not be profitable at the moment, a good amount of company's can't take on more debt or will not be able to due to lack of debt buyers at end of business cycle. Real Estate Assets across the world have been seeing a Deflation since H2 2018 and likely to accelerate when Derivatives/Defaults blow up... Yet I keep reading articles that Central Banks will pump more QE and more liquidity in the markets making everything good again, which is delusional for those who are always long on life and can't see capitalism destroyed itself in this cycle again. Access to Credit has never been an issue in this cycle, and increasing it won't change a thing, world consumers are taped out, corporations are taped out having to spend R&D money and other money into debt servicing from taking on too much debt.

It's almost like massive amount of Credit made people forget profitability matters. China's huge financial meltdown coming will trigger Australia, Japan, South Korea, Germany and to an extent Canada. Australia will get obliterated the most with China's consumption recession, from there massive metals and minerals export shrinking to a lot less foreign money to prop up economy, meltdown in defaults coming through in next few months due to such high volume of interest only predator mortgages becoming interest and principal now.

Once Derivative bombs start going off, all hell breaks loose like in 08. 08 Recession wasn't cause of US Housing, it was cause of the Derivatives on US housing bonds. Now it will be China's consumption collapse, China's been printing enough to keep other economies afloat this cycle, now there consumer are past tapped out and excessive printing has caused borderline Hyper Inflation for living standards. Chinese Central bank is printing excessively and lending like never seen just to not collapse at this point, running to stand still

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Dalio's economic machine is a work of art. No one elucidated this before him. He should be in the hall of fame. Except he's an egotistic cunt (because he was an only child) so he seeks the fame himself. Should just let the piper's tune lure the kids.

 

[vin2018]

Thanks for sharing the link.

 

[Sprout]

Dalio's economic machine is a work of art. No one elucidated this before him. He should be in the hall of fame. Except he's an egotistic cunt (because he was an only child) so he seeks the fame himself. Should just let the piper's tune lure the kids.

Dalio’s Economic Machine is a work of art.

I’d don’t quite understand your other statements.

His interview with Tony Robbins is also quite good - ‘thoughtful disagreement’ based on the merit of ideas in addition to his principals are useful and valuable concepts.

 

[Stockolio]

Dalio’s Economic Machine is a work of art.

I’d don’t quite understand your other statements.

His interview with Tony Robbins is also quite good - ‘thoughtful disagreement’ based on the merit of ideas in addition to his principals are useful and valuable concepts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/...-associates-hedge-fund-culture-ray-dalio.html

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2018...-your-vicinity-secretly-fear-and-despise-you/

But one employee said in a complaint earlier this year that the hedge fund was like a “cauldron of fear and intimidation.”

The employee’s complaint with the Connecticut Commission on Human Rights and Opportunities, which has not been previously reported, describes an atmosphere of constant surveillance by video and recordings of all meetings — and the presence of patrolling security guards — that silence employees who do not fit the Bridgewater mold

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/...-associates-hedge-fund-culture-ray-dalio.html

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2018...-your-vicinity-secretly-fear-and-despise-you/

But one employee said in a complaint earlier this year that the hedge fund was like a “cauldron of fear and intimidation.”

The employee’s complaint with the Connecticut Commission on Human Rights and Opportunities, which has not been previously reported, describes an atmosphere of constant surveillance by video and recordings of all meetings — and the presence of patrolling security guards — that silence employees who do not fit the Bridgewater mold

100% false. You have to be able to stand up for yourself and get dinged if you're repeatedly wrong.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

re dalio, I meant the poor guy has nothing to center him: his kids are grown, his company is gone, he is in the third phase of his life and the transition has been tough for him. So he's trying out a bunch of things (fame, etc) that may or may not work for him. I don't think fame works for him, he's too much of a private person for that. But he enjoys teaching so my guess is that is where he'll end up.