The Beerish Bull's Great Chronicle of Alcohol and Poor Decisions
- Thread starter beerntrading
- Start date
Shame I wasn't posting live today...but today was an amazing day for me, and also a resounding endorsement of my decision to trade vs. work a salary job. So, I'll go ahead and post this here for my own enjoyment--just to memorialize my best ever trade.
Also, to elaborate on that point of mine I quoted, I don't just think this is an ordinary business practice, but I suspect the nuance of American law means that the directors would be negligent in their duty to shareholders if they did no sell data in direct breach of their privacy policy. It's a simple business transaction:
Cost of hiding breach + risk of disclosure and fallout < value of data sold in breach of privacy policy.
That's it. They'd be leaving shareholder money on the table if they did not do this and subjecting themselves to competitive disadvantages in addition to shareholder lawsuits.
Just think about that. In the context of the current political environment, the dems are not going to shy away from this perceived political betrayal (never mind the presumed actual betrayal of privacy), and the republicans are not going to pass up an opportunity to punish, for example, GOOG, AMZN (and WaPo, ahem), FB....What do you think the chances are we don't come out of this mess with European like teeth behind privacy breaches--and what do you think that does to the value of these companies.
Not only is the a legitimate threat now that is already likely affecting current earnings, but also such a blatant threat to future earnings potential. These companies just wiped away a massive portion of their fundamental value purely as a question of forward earnings. Were I to guess now, I'd say this is a much more substantial portion of revenue for these companies than the market has priced in, and watching 3% of the SPX value evaporate purely based on the price movement of these three stocks seems reasonable to me at this point. Never mind the infectious environment those three coming down together will touch off across the market.
It's a good day when you're long TWTR puts because of this rationale and Citron comes out and says about the same thing. Nothing quite like using Twitter to announce you think TWTR is a short, while ironically displaying the value of Twitter's business model.
Also, to elaborate on that point of mine I quoted, I don't just think this is an ordinary business practice, but I suspect the nuance of American law means that the directors would be negligent in their duty to shareholders if they did no sell data in direct breach of their privacy policy. It's a simple business transaction:
Cost of hiding breach + risk of disclosure and fallout < value of data sold in breach of privacy policy.
That's it. They'd be leaving shareholder money on the table if they did not do this and subjecting themselves to competitive disadvantages in addition to shareholder lawsuits.
Just think about that. In the context of the current political environment, the dems are not going to shy away from this perceived political betrayal (never mind the presumed actual betrayal of privacy), and the republicans are not going to pass up an opportunity to punish, for example, GOOG, AMZN (and WaPo, ahem), FB....What do you think the chances are we don't come out of this mess with European like teeth behind privacy breaches--and what do you think that does to the value of these companies.
Not only is the a legitimate threat now that is already likely affecting current earnings, but also such a blatant threat to future earnings potential. These companies just wiped away a massive portion of their fundamental value purely as a question of forward earnings. Were I to guess now, I'd say this is a much more substantial portion of revenue for these companies than the market has priced in, and watching 3% of the SPX value evaporate purely based on the price movement of these three stocks seems reasonable to me at this point. Never mind the infectious environment those three coming down together will touch off across the market.