The Beerish Bull's Great Chronicle of Alcohol and Poor Decisions

[beerntrading]

Ok, full week numbers after the QQQ close:

QQQ was closed for a credit of .26 - $345 for a loss of $179 or 34%.

That puts the whole week at a gain of $344 or a mediocre 3%. Hopefully we'll get some volatility in here before Monday to kick off next week.

That will also bring an end to the first 'month' of the live strategy with a $1,720 gain on $10,000--and just shy of my target to cover half the potential draw down each month (which is about 40%). Can't say I'm unhappy with that--nearly to the poverty line with just $10k capital at risk (though, no delusions here--this will come down when I get hit with a bad week).

 

[beerntrading]

Ugh...not easy getting positions open today. And nothing feels right this week. A few price moves against my opening positions kind of locked me in for the weekend. The only saving grace is I was able to get really cheap SPX hedges that will cover nearly 100% of losses if it goes south on me (quickly).

Positions were (all 10/3 expiry, all put credit spreads except SPX with is debit):
25x DAL 49-50 for .30 - $719 credit ($1,781 at risk)
25x CSX 52-53 for .33 - $794 credit ($1,706 at risk)
20x CAT 136-137 for .31 - $594 credit ($1,406 at risk)
10x BABA 172.50-175 for 1.05 - $1,034 credit ($1,466 at risk)

7x SPX 2545-2555 for 1.00 - $713 debit

I was really slow on the post today--but I'm obviously not lying on those (not quite live) trades. I'm getting slaughtered on them already.

 

[beerntrading]

Out of CSX at .78...that was a bloodbath.

 

[beerntrading]

Out of CAT at .48...grrr.....

 

[beerntrading]

Out BABA at .39. I'll be flattening out today.

 

[beerntrading]

Out of DAL for .34.

 

[beerntrading]

Out the short side of SPX hedge at .55

 

[beerntrading]

Ok, last week was rough...so, let's go over the losses:

20x CSX was closed for a debit of $1585 for a loss of $991 or 70% (ouch!)
20x CAT closed for $1,230 for a loss of $636 or 45%
25x DAL closed for $880 for a loss of $161 or 9%
10x BABA closed for $405 for a gain of $629 or 43%

SPX was a total loss.

So, $7,072 at risk last week, $1,914 lost, 27% lost. You'll note that I left $3k uncommitted last week because I wasn't happy with what I saw. Lesson learned (again).

Ugh...not easy getting positions open today. And nothing feels right this week.

Should have just flattened out rather than trying to force it.

But a good time to look back at totals since the beginning of October:
10/6 expiry was a $919 gain
10/13 expiry was a $460 gain
10/20 I sat out
10/27 was a $523 gain
11/2 was pretty brutal with a $1,914 loss.

Sum Total: $12 loss...so account would sit at $9,988. Depends how much you paid in commissions...

The last two weeks I've spent doing some (actually very good) directional trades without live postings. But I expect to be back to the spreads for the monthly expiry next week. But I will sit this one out. No reason to hold the bag this weekend with Tweets coming out of China, and disagreement on tax coming out of Washington. Monday should provide some good entries (which I actually thought about this week...but we'll see).

 

[beerntrading]

Another week, another round of put credit spreads. All 11/17 expiry:

25x MSFT 82-83 for .30. $719 credit ($1,781 at risk)
25x MU 44-45 for .29. $694 credit ($1,806 at risk)
10x NFLX 195.50-195 for .92. $904 credit ($1,596 at risk)
25x UPS 113-114 for .30. $719 credit ($1,781 at risk)
25x WMT 90-91 for .36. $869 credit ($1,631 at risk)

5x SPX hedge 2555-2565 debit spread for 1.25. $661 debit.
15x QQQ hedge 150.50-152.50 debit spread for .27. $426 debit.

$2,818 total credits.
$9,687 total at risk.
$2,907 max expected loss.
$1,400 Target profit.

 

[beerntrading]

I realized WMT earnings were this week (doh!), so I closed that position (took a 11% hit on that one). I opened one on JNJ to replace it on the 139-140 spread for .36 (figures are identical to above. It's ATM right now, but I really like this chart pattern.

$199 loss on WMT mistake.

Revised numbers this week with JNJ substituted for WMT:
25x MSFT 82-83 for .30. $719 credit ($1,781 at risk)
25x MU 44-45 for .29. $694 credit ($1,806 at risk)
10x NFLX 195.50-195 for .92. $904 credit ($1,596 at risk)
25x UPS 113-114 for .30. $719 credit ($1,781 at risk)
25x JNJ 90-91 for .36. $869 credit ($1,631 at risk)

5x SPX hedge 2555-2565 debit spread for 1.25. $661 debit.
15x QQQ hedge 150.50-152.50 debit spread for .27. $426 debit.

$2,818 total credits.
$9,687 total at risk.
$2,907 max expected loss.
$1,400 Target profit.

With a $199 realized loss in from here.