The Beerish Bull's Great Chronicle of Alcohol and Poor Decisions

Just went long Oct $31 call on MU for 1.28. Early entry diagonal on here.

This is one that hit my radar Friday for bouncing off it's bollingers on the daily candles. That and I'm fairly confident of this one moving towards $31 before earnings (actually, $32 wouldn't surprise me). I fully plan to close this one before we see the earnings on 10/6, but it should give up some good premium on the way up. I'll be a bit skittish on this below $28, but I think we've seen the last of 27s for the time being.

Also, I realized today that the $4 spread on MSFT (short 8/11 71, long Oct 75) is presenting way too much exposure for me. I'll be halving the short position today to cut down on absolute exposure--though I'm confident in the bearish reading on that, especially after MA-20 held so strongly today (which was the point where I cry uncle and bail 100% on the short).
 
I also opened up a trade on FB for a Sept 180-190 call spread for .74 earlier. Purely speculative cash, but it's based on bullishness being repeated in all my charts: Today, 3-day, Week, Month, 3-Month, 1-Year, and 3-Year. This is that combination of bullishness that shows up as frequently as unicorns--so I'll take the better than 10:1 potential payoff on this and be fine with it if it's a loser. But the call volume activity on this suggests it's likely to be a good winner on volatility early, and perhaps on intrinsic as early September nears.

I also have a similar eye to GS after @vanzandt pointed out the unusual call activity on this one Friday. There's a 10k contract move on the 9/15 calls, and the price activity suggests this was purchased on the (increasing) ask--which is to say it's a buy. My meager skills of perception didn't find the hedge side of this (I do wonder if it's part of a bond spread, which would be beyond my know-how), but all I can see on this is that it's speculative. I'm now looking for a good entry to the $240-250 call spread on this one if it shows an attractive price. This would have a similar potential payout to the FB position above.
 
beerntrading said:
Back short on the MSFT position with the 71 call for 1.13 credit.
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Closed half this position lest it moves against me with that $4 spread of absolute risk. Not that I don't think this one isn't going down tomorrow, just got unbalanced from a risk standpoint.

closed for 1.50 debit...I'll be back in a min to figure out effective cost basis on this one now... :confused:

Edit: Effective cost basis for the whole position (Long $75 Oct call, short 1/2 $71 8/11 call) is 0.55...I think...after the first round of profit taking and today's sale.
 
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I have an order sitting right now hoping for a fill on GS 9/15 calls for a 240-250 debit spread at 1.00. The reason on this is pretty straight forward. On Friday at 11:30, there was an order for 10k contracts on increasing price for around 0.35 (there was another 3k+ buy an hour later for a bit more). I wasn't able to see a spread in the options chains (across other expiries, other banks, or against a shares position)--I don't know if you could hedge certain bonds with this position--this looks to be an actual long speculation. Nothing closed during the interim. That means that someone thought it was worth $350k on a speculative position that GS nears $250 before 9/15. I don't know what they know, but following the money is not necessarily a bad thing. So, a highly speculative position, I'll see if I can't get a good fill with a potential 8:1 payoff.
 
beerntrading said:
Just went short JPM 8/11 $94 call for .78.

Edit:

Now the whole position is .57 debit. The spread on this is down to $1, making absolute risk .43. :D

And just for some perspective, I'm getting slaughtered on MSFT (but holding tight there)
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Just bought those back for .16...update in a moment for the vitals

Edit: 76% gain on that short position. Cost basis for the long Oct 95 call is now 0.73. Will be watching for another entry into the $94 or $95 shorts in the coming days / weeks.

Eyes now to the MSFT, looking to get out of my current short for a small loser.
 
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Closed the rest of the MSFT short for 1.42 debit. This was a small loss. Effective cost basis for the Oct $75 call long position that I have now is 1.62 (currently trading 1.13)
 
beerntrading said:
I have an order sitting right now hoping for a fill on GS 9/15 calls for a 240-250 debit spread at 1.00. The reason on this is pretty straight forward. On Friday at 11:30, there was an order for 10k contracts on increasing price for around 0.35 (there was another 3k+ buy an hour later for a bit more). I wasn't able to see a spread in the options chains (across other expiries, other banks, or against a shares position)--I don't know if you could hedge certain bonds with this position--this looks to be an actual long speculation. Nothing closed during the interim. That means that someone thought it was worth $350k on a speculative position that GS nears $250 before 9/15. I don't know what they know, but following the money is not necessarily a bad thing. So, a highly speculative position, I'll see if I can't get a good fill with a potential 8:1 payoff.
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I'm going to look foolish tomorrow for not having come up to 1.10 or 1.15 and just taken the fill...that ship has sailed.
 
beerntrading said:
VIX - Ratio spread. Short 1x 9 call, long 2x 10 call as a hedge positions for .45 debit
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Today was an important lesson. This position was an effective hedge against my strategy--had I kept it open. :banghead:

Should I come out of this blood bath with a trading account left, I'll know that this will work to protect against this exact situation in the future, and I know I had the position sizing right.

I did get my GS fill today though.
 
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