The bears were wrong

Quote from plugger:

As for the indexes themselves, ever heard of "survivor bias"? The indexes look good because the crap stocks are kicked out of the index and replaced with better ones. Where is Polaroid now?
And International Paper (IP), AT&T (T) and Eastman Kodak (EK); three other important stocks which were kicked out when they didn't fit anymore!

PS: Thanks for your friendly words plugger.
 
Quote from DHOHHI:

I guess you've not been around all that long. I shorted VTSS at $97 back in February 2000. It's now $2.20. INTC was $75 back in 2000, now $21. CSCO was $75, now $18. SUNW was $60, now $4+. And let's not forget about all the dot-com busts. ARBA was $1000, now $8. MSTR was $3000, now $90+. ITWO was $4000, now $15. Some are obviously adjusted for the reverse splits.

And last, the NAZ was at 5000+ in 2000. Now at 2250. Needs more than 100% move up from here to reach those levels again. So money can be made consistently on the short side, both short term and longer term.

So the "window of opportunity" on the short side is NOT short, as you stated.

Do you also subscribe to the theory that a football team is better off just running the ball and not passing (or vice versa)? To NOT utilize all your options is foolish, whether in football or trading.

Did you actually short VTSS at $97 all the way down to $2.20 ? Did you short all the others down to their lows ? Did you even make 50% on 50% of your shorts? It's easy to pick the best examples and say look it went down from 100 to 2! Obviously if you do not even know that you only get a handful of low risk shorting opportunities ( more like 2-3 setups)during a stock decline you must not be a very skillfull short seller.

Anyway I am tired of replying as far as I am concerned I think I will close this thread here.
 
Quote from Kicking:

Did you actually short VTSS at $97 all the way down to $2.20 ? Did you short all the others down to their lows ? Did you even make 50% on 50% of your shorts? It's easy to pick the best examples and say look it went down from 100 to 2! Obviously if you do not even know that you only get a handful of low risk shorting opportunities ( more like 2-3 setups)during a stock decline you must not be a very skillfull short seller.

Anyway I am tired of replying as far as I am concerned I think I will close this thread here.

You don't need to catch all the move of a stock, either UP or DOWN! Yes, I shorted VTSS at $97. And I covered higher than the current $2.20 price. So what? Bottom line is I did quite well. Same with the others listed. No I didn't short them to the lows. Do you hold all your long positions to the high and then sell at the very top? Doubtful. Most traders, or at least those I know, are looking to just catch a big part of a move, whether short term (intra-day) or longer term (months or years). No one can short (or go long) at the top (or bottom) and then cover (or sell) at the bottom (or top).

But, it's easier to close the thread I suppose when someone else presents an opposing viewpoint, factually based.

Bottom line is that one can make money shorting stocks every day, just as they can make money on the long side.
 
Quote from Kicking:

studyand trade,

One the first times I shorted was that day in April 2000 when everything collapsed, shorting was the easiest thing to do. I also remember that in the last hour I shorted a stock around 91 ( think it was VRSN) to hold it overnight when it went over 93 I decided to cover but I was trading in the university computer room with an online broker. By the time my order was executed 5 minutes or so later the stock had moved several points against me. That was an odd lot because I was cautious for an overnight , had it been bigger it would have wiped out most of my profits for that day. This kind of move rarely happens on the long side .

.

are we really taking advice from a trader who had to trade from the university because he could not afford his own computer and who used an online broker that needed 5m to execute an order ?
Really impressed. And because a short trade went against you you have been convinced since then that long is any better ?

In a shorter time frame and with proper money management there is no difference between short or long.

Believe me, the people having short positions Friday really enjoyed a nice day. And there are more to come...
 
ahaha I just knew someone would say that. The Uni computer room is where I first got interested in online trading. I can see what sort of trader you must be, thinks he needs all the bells and whistles to make money.

Well for me this thread was more of a monoloque than anything else, I did not really expect any positive contribution from ET members, the decreasing minority of decent and interesting ET contributors would have nothing to add to what I said and the very few truly skillful and succesful at shorting stocks would not bother telling the world how they do it.

I thank all the clueless shorts for all the great long opportunities they provide




Quote from Topsurfi:

B]
Believe me, the people having short positions Friday really enjoyed a nice day. And there are more to come... [/B]

yeah but they got killed a hundred times since 2003
 
The U.S. equities market does have an upward bias over very long time frames. It is so slight, however, that I wonder whether it has any practical value for traders.
 
Quote from Kicking:

ahaha I just knew someone would say that. The Uni computer room is where I first got interested in online trading. I can see what sort of trader you must be, thinks he needs all the bells and whistles to make money.

Well for me this thread was more of a monoloque than anything else, I did not really expect any positive contribution from ET members, the decreasing minority of decent and interesting ET contributors would have nothing to add to what I said and the very few truly skillful and succesful at shorting stocks would not bother telling the world how they do it.

I thank all the clueless shorts for all the great long opportunities they provide






yeah but they got killed a hundred times since 2003

No, traders don't need ALL the bells and whistles. But anyone who trades through an online broker and has to wait 5 minutes for a confirmation is trading in the dark ages. There are a number of direct access brokers that are as cheap, if not cheaper than online brokers, where you get INSTANT confirmations.

No positive contributions? Huh ... I'm guessing you're not a trader, or not a full time trader. I've had some of my best shorting days when the market was up 100-200 points. And I've had some great long days when the market was tanking. How and why? Intra-day trades are plentiful on the big move days. When panic sets in you go long for a quick trade. And when the market is tunning wildly you play a few shorts, since a pullback often occurs. And when one has longer term shorts (or longs) where you're up 10-20% you're in no hurry to cover (or sell longs). I make more of my money on position trades but each and every day there are a LOT of short plays.

Maybe the Steelers will just run the ball today. I mean why throw it? There's more chance of "problems" (i.e. interceptions) so it's a lower probability option. That's how you seem to view the long/short options in trading. Yeah, let's just use 1/2 of our options.
 
It would appear that the mere timing alone of this thread would warrant serious consideration for The Donkey Award. However, the committee has decided that the near constant rebuttals provided by "Kicking" have nearly sealed his fate.

Therefore, the Donkey Award for the month of January, 2006 is hereby presented to Kicking. He has exhibited a marvelous combination of hubris, ignorance and disdain, all traits that are shared by past winners of this dubious distinction.
 
Quote from Kicking:

ahaha I just knew someone would say that. The Uni computer room is where I first got interested in online trading. I can see what sort of trader you must be, thinks he needs all the bells and whistles to make money.

Well for me this thread was more of a monoloque than anything else, I did not really expect any positive contribution from ET members, the decreasing minority of decent and interesting ET contributors would have nothing to add to what I said and the very few truly skillful and succesful at shorting stocks would not bother telling the world how they do it.

I thank all the clueless shorts for all the great long opportunities they provide






yeah but they got killed a hundred times since 2003
let us all know when the clueless bears are dead or have gone into hibernation.
 
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