The bear market rally is now done - Monday starts another downtrend - see attached
- Thread starter Port1385
- Start date
Traders...it is time to go through your stocks and find the best shorts out there. Today was a pivotal point on the ES. Pivotal. Now its time to go short and play the trend.
Yes, this is the trading forum, so lets trade. The market has topped and now its time to short it. Its time to look within yourselves and ask yourself what are the best stocks to take short or just plain short the ES altogether. It can't hurt to short the TLT either. Just short it.
You know whats funny? When I start a highly viewed and popular thread, there are always those who grandstand in it with some type of off-topic point adding nothing to it. I started this thread with the hope in mind that we will talk about the next downtrend and the market topping out.
If you want to talk off-topic, please dont do it in my threads. You have a chit-chat forum to do that in.
Yes, this is the trading forum, so lets trade. The market has topped and now its time to short it. Its time to look within yourselves and ask yourself what are the best stocks to take short or just plain short the ES altogether. It can't hurt to short the TLT either. Just short it.
You know whats funny? When I start a highly viewed and popular thread, there are always those who grandstand in it with some type of off-topic point adding nothing to it. I started this thread with the hope in mind that we will talk about the next downtrend and the market topping out.
If you want to talk off-topic, please dont do it in my threads. You have a chit-chat forum to do that in.
Hung up on Labels???
You are the one that is making very strong claims as to what the characteristics are of this current market environment and price action, or have you not noticed that lately?
How can you be so sure that this is merely just
another bear market rally and not the beginning of a new secular bull?"
I'm not saying that you are wrong, I'm just wondering what you are using as the basis/evidence to come to such a conclusion.
Ever look at the 1937-1938 Bear Market that took 49% out of the market?
You would have gotten your head handed to you had you shorted the rally out of that Bear, thinking that it was just another rally inside of a Bear Market. Interestingly enough, the economy had a lot of characteristics similar to today's current environment, including a huge commodity collapse.
Futures starting to pick up. Looks like we'll see another rally.
My analysis of all the indicators I use in my investing (or trading if you prefer) brings me to that conclusion.
Point being, whatever one wishes to label such things is incidental. If I say rally in a secular bear market, and someone else says bull market, it doesn't really matter, other than at what point one expects the rally to end.
Last year's action paralleled 1929 quite uncannily. Which is one reason (among others) I expect this year to be very similar outcome to 1930--a massive bear market rally up to or greater than 50% from the previous year's low, followed by a resumption of the downtrend by mid-year.
It's very amusing to observe that so many people are convinced that the chart determines where the market must go, and not the other way around.
It appears clear to me to be a rally in a bear market. And until I see otherwise I will treat it as such. I look at the overall economy and where earnings will be headed. I see earnings heading lower. The market has priced in the economy and earnings turning around in qtr3 and that is helping fuel the rally. When the awakening occurs that 09 (and qtr 3 and 4) is going to be as bad or worse than 08 the rally will fizzle, till then ride with it. I doubt it has much more to the upside and I am getting ready to short, but will let my longs run and exercise patience and stay with the current trend. One never knows just how far a bear rally will go but we are up nicely and reaching the max for a bear rally. I just don't see the economy and earnings turning around in 09 as it is worsening by all indications.
Auto sales are off 30%+, NO ONE is buying cars, housing is dead and every bit of spending associated with that sector, the consumer is not spending and that will not turn around anytime soon as there will be many more foreclosures to come and increasing unemployment. Just think of the impact of the auto industry on the overall economy. All the trickle down spending. Just wait till we get GDP numbers for the 1st-2nd qtr. It will be ugly.
....once again......I am going to be selling in to strength on the builders. Love this sector!
A little buy on the rumor sell on the news Obama rally run up till Jan 20?
Make the case WHY we should go into a BULL MARKET? Tell us why all the negatives in the economy are going to turn around qtr3.
Auto sales are off 30%+, NO ONE is buying cars, housing is dead and every bit of spending associated with that sector, the consumer is not spending and that will not turn around anytime soon as there will be many more foreclosures to come and increasing unemployment. Just think of the impact of the auto industry on the overall economy. All the trickle down spending. Just wait till we get GDP numbers for the 1st-2nd qtr. It will be ugly.
....once again......I am going to be selling in to strength on the builders. Love this sector!
A little buy on the rumor sell on the news Obama rally run up till Jan 20?
Make the case WHY we should go into a BULL MARKET? Tell us why all the negatives in the economy are going to turn around qtr3.