The bear market is here, its now, SPY to 114!!!

[jackherman59]

The great bear market is upon us. The SPY will soon break its neck down to the 114 level. I am tremendously short at this time and am eagerly waiting the snap of the neck.

Its not a matter of if, but when. I say the SPY to 114 in the next 6 months. What say you, bulls? What say you now? The bulls are sitting on the Titanic with the proud homeowners telling us they bought their home because of their overweight wife.

Look at my chart, see my chart. The SPY collapse is hear, its now.

 

[dsq]

technically that looks like a hs top starting from april til now...funny,the dow chart looks like a hs bottom from about beginning of nov or mid oct i think....

Here's one thing to consider the sp500 trades at a historical lo-hi price earnings ratio range of about 14-30....
It never has started a bear market at the lo end and never started a bull market at the hi end....

The current sp500 PE is 14.

Technicals,charts dont have a great predictive record.

That one indicator above that i mention is simple and has never failed.
This doesnt mean it wont fail but in betting terms, its simply better.

 

[scoobie27]

According to Big Charts, the SPX PE ratio is actually 17.44. So i think you're off the mark at 14.

 

[scoobie27]

According to Big Charts, the SPX PE ratio is actually 17.44. So i think you're off the mark at 14.

 

[jackherman59]

I believe this chart will open your eyes on P/E. This chart tells me that the bottom might come for P/E at 10. That would put the Spy right around 980 in the future. My prediction is a little more bullish though. 114...



http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html

 

[xiaodre]

huh, imagine that. the s&p made new highs in October. Would you have called that part of the 5 year long bull market?

Looks like a triangle on the daily chart...

Are we in a bear market? I dunno, so I guess I'm still on the titanic with homeowners. Does it matter if we are in a bear market? I'm a little more sure of that answer.

 

[gam1111]

jackherman , you say u anticipate spy to trade down to 114.

Friday's close was $148.13 for spy and $spx 1484.46.

I looked at your attached chart which doesn't even show the 1140 range for $spx.

Did you error in what you wanted to state as your target price?

 

[gam1111]

However, your targets may be right. Who know's?

Spy may even break 114 on the downside as you indicated.

 

[jackherman59]

I kind of made this post half-jokingly, however, the more I read the responses and look at the data I start to believe we might hit 114. Here are the reasons:

1. On the heels of a recession or we might be in a recession. Market has been known to correct 30% or more during recessions.

2. Large market makers and market players like BSC still feeling effects of mortgage blowups. Laying off employees and their stock prices keep moving lower. Hedge funds like BX and FIG keep making new lows. Cramer's infamous SHLD keeps going lower way off of its 52 week high.

3. Price of the spy keeps chopping around like its the year 2000.

4. Large-cap tech stocks seem like the only ones making new highs just like the year 2000. Growth stocks seem the best bet in this evironment indicating late stage of the business cycle.

5. The P/E argument- P/E is still very much inflated according to the decisionpoint chart. In the distant historical past, the P/E was known to get to 10 or lower. At a P/E of 16-17, the index is still a little rich.