the basic flaws in TA

Quote from marketsurfer:

sorry, i did not mean to stir such emotive criticism, but i welcome it!

let's define trend following: isn't the term itself kind of meaningless? if you are making money, obviously you are with the trend, or losing money you are against the trend. THEREFORE, proper entries must be the hidden secret in getting with the trend. everything i have seen in print regarding trend following states buying higher highs and selling lower lows is how a trend follower enters the market. then, based on example, they HOLD and HOPE the trend they were trying to enter continues or resumes after a nice fat drawdown.

therefore, any directional fund that makes money is a trend following fund by default.

in addition, it seems that trend traders are spread across many markets, and the goal is to make the trends they catch bigger than the ones they miss--hence large sums of capital and even more risk is required to pull it off......

bring it on, show me the logical flaws.

surfer


ps. happy you came out of hiding!


:)
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ok let's talk about trend following...

I just had to go to today's chart of my (and everyone else's) favorite index at the moment...

you can probably figure out where the entries are (indicator based too gasp!)

:) oh, and this type of day is the norm not the exception
 

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Quote from darkhorse:
Interesting point.

I wonder what happens if you restrict the criteria to traders who have been around, say, 15 years or longer.

Under that restriction I wager that (surviving) trend followers would outnumber (surviving) mean reverters by at least three to one (not counting floor traders), and that trend followers would crush the mean reverters in terms of absolute dollar profits made and kept.

(I am by no means a member of the trend following 'cult', by the way, and have stated as much multiple times on this board.)
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I wonder if what you're saying applies if we restrict the comparison to trend followers and mean reverters that use proper money management.

I believe that mean reverters usually use Martingale strategies, that are proven to be deadly.

Also, I think that mean reverters don't include those that trade channels and open their positions around an EMA or SMA, but don't open positions expecting for the price to revert to the EMA or SMA.
 
That index sucks to trade. Too many jokers following it now.

You need a really nice trending index like this...



Quote from mogul:

ok let's talk about trend following...

I just had to go to today's chart of my (and everyone else's) favorite index at the moment...

you can probably figure out where the entries are (indicator based too gasp!)

:) oh, and this type of day is the norm not the exception
More...
 

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The charts are no more than a picture of the psychology of the market and TA the analysis of that psychology. The newtonian reference is to the momentum at a point and is obviously correct: price on very thin trade can go anywhere but when turnover is huge any reversal is unlikely to be sudden.

Support and resistance levels dont appear by magic - they reflect the collective 'wisdom' of the market and are ignored at your peril.

The major problem with TA is that many think there is an algorithm somewhere that will lead them to riches. It isnt like that. The analysis gives you a head start but at the end of the day you have to exercise proper money management proctices and not engage in wishful thinking about what the charts tell you.

TA will not, on its own, make you a winner but without it you are very likely to be a loser.
 
Quote from mogul:

ok let's talk about trend following...

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Oops, I forgot to mention:
__________________
Trend Finding is Edge Finding and Edge Finding is Trend Finding
nononsense's axiom
:D
 
Quote from zygma:

Support and resistance levels dont appear by magic - they reflect the collective 'wisdom' of the market and are ignored at your peril.
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Support and resistance levels are moving targets, they change as the stock moves up or down.

Pick any stock and give its current support and resistance levels, those numbers become obsolete very quickly. Some quicker than others.
 
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The meaning of the words support and resistance are actually after the facts phrases.

Where to entry using this information is important. Some will figure it out , other will not, Figure it out.



espically uninvited_guest

:)
 
Quote from coolweb:

The meaning of the words support and resistance are actually after the facts phrases. Where to entry using this information is important. Some will figure it out , other will not, Figure it out.

espically uninvited_guest

:)
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Can you give a live trading example?

Coolweb....your journal proves that TA is worthless. Another thread that shows TA is worthless.
 
Considering

every single trade I posted in my journal for the past 2 months were all 95% profitable

Yeah, it looks worthless to me.

lol

are you smoking something?

Maybe need new glasses, hanging around this forum for too long you can't even read straight.
 
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