the basic flaws in TA

Quote from uninvited_guest:

Can you back up your claims with a live trading journal? If not why?
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My statement was a bit subjective, you can't really prove or disprove that TA is simple for me. Its a personal thing.

surely I can set up a journal, and i said I would a few pages back. Someone else said a few pages back that I need not worry about making a journal, as it would not benefit me in any way. All I really need to worry about is making money for myself. However, i think i will start one and hopefully it won't be too burdensome to upkeep.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

purely an example of survivorship bias. one never hears from the legions of failed technical traders.

:D :D
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No offense surf, but this statement is scientifically obtuse.

Within their given subset, traders who measure their success in decades have striking similarities in methodology and approach. In other words, if you look at great trend followers, great floor traders, great value investors etc., you will see the same "tells" over and over again.

In this regard, the trend follower subset bears strong resemblance to Buffett's "superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville" subset. The members of each subset think about markets in similar ways, approach the market in similar ways, make their profits in similar ways. Members of each subset operate in a specific niche of the market ecosystem.

When you combine the length of the track records in question (decades) with the extreme similarity of methodology and mindset, the odds of random selection asymptote above zero. For survivorship bias to apply, the distribution of successful players should be random -- they should be all across the spectrum. They are not.

Which calls to mind another bone to pick with the random walkers: it is highly unlikely that any "coin flip" method could produce a 20 year track record of success in the first place. Survivorship bias just doesn't last that long.

If the coin flip critique applies over the truly long haul, we should see at least a handful of erratic wackos and Miss Cleo types mixed in with the multi-decade success club. The jokers would stick out like sore thumbs; unsurprisingly, there are none.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

purely an example of survivorship bias. one never hears from the legions of failed technical traders.

:D :D
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Surfer
I Have read your posts for years. You have provided great information and entertainment but recently something has changed for the worst. I am concerned enough to actually join to tell you what I think resulting in this post. What I have noticed is ever since you started hanging out with Niederhoffer and his group you have changed for the worst. I for one would like to see the old surf back..... What happened to him?
Sincerly
Snapdragon
 
Quote from uninvited_guest:
Wow 16 pages and not one volunteer to prove TA works with a simple live trading journal. Can't you TA guys come up with something better than this live trading journal? My Options Play
Flipping coins will generate better results than what Multioption gets from his TA.
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One hot summer's day a Fox was strolling through an orchard till he came to a bunch of Grapes just ripening on a vine which had been trained over a lofty branch.
"Just the thing to quench my thirst," quoth he. Drawing back a few paces, he took a run and a jump, and just missed the bunch. Turning round again with a One, Two, Three, he jumped up, but with no greater success.
Again and again he tried after the tempting morsel, but at last had to give it up, and walked away with his nose in the air, saying: "I am sure they are sour."

"It is easy to despise what you cannot get."

The Fox and the Sour Grapes - Aesop
 
Quote from cnms2:

One hot summer's day a Fox was strolling through an orchard till he came to a bunch of Grapes just ripening on a vine which had been trained over a lofty branch.
"Just the thing to quench my thirst," quoth he. Drawing back a few paces, he took a run and a jump, and just missed the bunch. Turning round again with a One, Two, Three, he jumped up, but with no greater success.
Again and again he tried after the tempting morsel, but at last had to give it up, and walked away with his nose in the air, saying: "I am sure they are sour."

"It is easy to despise what you cannot get."

The Fox and the Sour Grapes - Aesop
More...

:D :p :D :p
 
Quote from darkhorse:

If the coin flip critique applies over the truly long haul, we should see at least a handful of erratic wackos and Miss Cleo types mixed in with the multi-decade success club. The jokers would stick out like sore thumbs; unsurprisingly, there are none.
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Excellent post darkhorse.

Does anyone know how Surfer is trading now if its now in some sense technical analysis (ie price/volume/time without fundementals based)?
 
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