The Augur

I don't trade gold but I thought I would mention: I have a longer term (2-3 weeks) strong buy signal on the gold chart....
 
Gold is still in the same range where it was when I got the signal, occasionally bursting up, but always selling off.

Anyway, since I haven't made any numbered prediction yet, it is time to do so, and let's make it a juicy one. My longer term indicator keep turning into sell mode and this is the slowest turn since I have been using it. So the prediction goes like this:

P#1: The Dow will drop from here a good 200+ points by the end of March. It closed yesterday at 11275....
 
After a little hesitation in the morning the Dow rallied 55+ points by 12:50 before realizing that my prediction pointed in the other direction and to correct it, quickly dropped 80+ points.

Right now it is at 11244, thus 30 points below yesterday's close. This runup was a good time to get in short, supposed you trusted me...

No, I based this prediction on my longer term indicator. That one uses MACD divergences...
 
Finally I got the confirmation from my indicator, thus I now officially have a strong sell signal. A strong signal usually indicates a 2-300 points move (could be more too), so going under 11K is not out of the question in the next 2-3 weeks.

Probably I shouldn't spell it out, but the trading strategy is rather obvious, stay short. If any rally occurs, that is just another great opportunity to get in at a better price...

For the record, yesterday we closed 40 points below from where I issued the short warning...
 
hello pekelo, when you said longer term macd are you referring to a weekly chart? do you also measure move with bb.


thank you,
bgp
 
Yes, it is a monthly timeframe with daily candlesticks on it. But both the Williams and the Slow Stoch were in way overbought conditions, and the price just came back from the upper Bollinger band, so at this time it is a no brainer...
 
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