The APPLE Crash

I bet someone once said that about a VCR, 8-track players, cassette tapes, an old Chevy engine that put out 200 horses, and so on, and so on. The iPhone will become a dinosaur one day just every other man-made innovation. But Hey! We're still waiting for a better mouse trap :)

Someone WILL come up with a communication device that's better than the iPhone -- it's just a matter of time.

AAPL's assent is not sustainable. The stock price has grown by an annualized rate of approximately 86.12% over approximately the past 3 years. That's an unsustainable move. The stock will either correct sharply or growth, along with the stock price, will begin to level off. From a trading standpoint, the stock may go higher but from a long-term investing standpoint I would touch it. Gidde up AAPL. All who are long the AAPL enjoy the ride while it lasts because all good things come to an end.

Quote from bwolinsky:

There won't ever be anything better than iPhones. PERIOD!
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Quote from the1:

I bet someone once said that about a VCR, 8-track players, cassette tapes, an old Chevy engine that put out 200 horses, and so on, and so on. The iPhone will become a dinosaur one day just every other man-made innovation. But Hey! We're still waiting for a better mouse trap :)

Someone WILL come up with a communication device that's better than the iPhone -- it's just a matter of time.

AAPL's assent is not sustainable. The stock price has grown by an annualized rate of approximately 86.12% over approximately the past 3 years. That's an unsustainable move. The stock will either correct sharply or growth, along with the stock price, will begin to level off. From a trading standpoint, the stock may go higher but from a long-term investing standpoint I would touch it. Gidde up AAPL. All who are long the AAPL enjoy the ride while it lasts because all good things come to an end.
More...

You're insane. There will never be anything better than iPhone. It will be around forever and will be a key tool for any professional.
 
Quote from the1:

I bet someone once said that about a VCR, 8-track players, cassette tapes, an old Chevy engine that put out 200 horses, and so on, and so on. The iPhone will become a dinosaur one day just every other man-made innovation. But Hey! We're still waiting for a better mouse trap :)

Someone WILL come up with a communication device that's better than the iPhone -- it's just a matter of time.

AAPL's assent is not sustainable. The stock price has grown by an annualized rate of approximately 86.12% over approximately the past 3 years. That's an unsustainable move. The stock will either correct sharply or growth, along with the stock price, will begin to level off. From a trading standpoint, the stock may go higher but from a long-term investing standpoint I would touch it. Gidde up AAPL. All who are long the AAPL enjoy the ride while it lasts because all good things come to an end.
More...

The stock will not see $400 again. The multiple will contract and likely trade under 10 on forward earnings, but the company is unbeatable over the next 5 years.

It would be great if there was a (realized) P/E swap or futures product to short.
 
AAPL sells a commodity protected by patents on rounded corners. The trade is short aapl and long samsung and htc. Rapid growth ahead is in developing third world economies, and they can't afford aapl products.
 
Where is the growth market going to be? China, India where there is little respect for intelectual property / patens?

When I lived in Hong Kong '99 - 2000 I could go to Guanzhou and find a copy (or even the genuine product) of nearly all western products at a fraction of the price. Similarly I could buy in Thailand the genuine T-shirts for 5 USD which in the US were "label" products and went for 100~200 USD.

Saw a chart of Apple products ( http://www.macrumors.com/2012/02/24...ts-product-line-to-beat-law-of-large-numbers/ ) which shows that the major gain comes from iPhone and iPad. iPad is a "me too" product and once the novelty wears thin the sheeple will get another toy. For doing serious work you'll need a decent keyboard and a mouse and when travelling you wants some protection for the screen. By that time a normal laptop is lighter, less bulky and less fragile. ( http://www.macworld.com/article/150418/2010/04/ipad_stress.html )

Sending kids to school with an iPad? A book may have the corner dented but the iPad needs costly repair plus you cannot use it while it is being repaired - how are you going to do the study?

Aluminium as a material for a laptop? Damages much more easily than something from plastic. Not only talking about dropping but also scratches and perspiration damage.

iPhone? Until something else comes along and pushes it off its pedestal. First criminal convictions already have happened because of having an Apple iPhone which is tracking all your physical movements with the build in GPS.

Apple has no respect at all for your privacy (neither has Google, Facebook and a host of others) and wants to have all your data. Yeah right, like I want to put my trading system someone else's storage where they can take a look at it. No thanks, I worked too hard to get it working properly.

Who knows, phones may disappear altogether, the sheeple may want one of the new Google glasses instead. (http://www.thetechblock.com/article...-feature-hud-will-go-on-sale-later-this-year/ ).
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

You're insane. There will never be anything better than iPhone. It will be around forever and will be a key tool for any professional.
More...

I spent 6 months working with an iphone as a part of my job. I am much more happy with my own HTC Desire HD.
 
Quote from bhardy307:

I spent 6 months working with an iphone as a part of my job. I am much more happy with my own HTC Desire HD.
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You probably didn't like iPhone's conveniences, like iTunes, or the mountain of apps it has. The Apps particularly work with every broker I've had, and I like that, but some of the other apps are useful, too.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

You probably didn't like iPhone's conveniences, like iTunes, or the mountain of apps it has. The Apps particularly work with every broker I've had, and I like that, but some of the other apps are useful, too.
More...

Not really. Its more of a cost benefit issue for my own needs. The Wifi hotspot capability of HTC saves me a bundle. I can have a single data plan for my htc phone and ipad. I was therefore able to buy the less expensive wifi capable only ipad. So, I am saving on both the data plan and the device plan, and the htc phone required a 0$ deposit for the three year plan, VS $250 for the iphone. For what you actually get, the iphone seems quite expensive.
 
Parabolic rise? So stocks aren't meant to rise that fast? Well it has so that premise is false. And even if it does correct it will most likely begin another "parabolic rise" from that point onwards- again falsifying dubious claims.

And even if it eventually rises far slowly or even consolidates or even CRASHES- that still doesn't validate the hypothesis. One can pick any stock chart and choose a regime where your hypothesis can be shown to be true. It's called confirmation bias.

Backtesting strategies, for example, are ripe with CB

Apple will correct but crash? thats a bold statement requiring concrete reasoning... Elliot Waves aren't quite concrete
 
Quote from brettdoyle:.......
That said Apple is highly profitable and I wouldn't want to step in front of a train and try short it...
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You are correct, do not try to catch a falling knife.

Actually this thread shows up who the real amateurs are.

It are only newbies that carry on how well they do in something like AAPL and they justify their trading decision in hindsight. They cannot make a living out of a choppy market which is where the most money is to be made. Been there, done that. Trading parabolic moves, that is. Not to mention that most of the parabolic moves are actually short squeezes.

Remember the dot Com crash? When every Tom, Dick and Harry starts to mention how well they are doing and that they cannot loose then it gets time to take the contrarian position. Same with the housing boom. However how many of the sheeple have the guts?

At the end of the day all you need to know is the price / volume movement since working by funny mentals (fundamentals) is a cr@psho0t.

For all we know some firm may already be working on an affordable game changer; a possible one is voice operated glasses with bluetooth connection to the more complicated / bulkier control box that will change the glasses into a monitor, phone, camera, binnocular, nightvision, infrared vision, etc etc.

Hmmmm.... I already think that part of that is already existing for the military? Game over for Apple, how sad.
 
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