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The APPLE Crash
- Thread starter GrandSupercycle
- Start date
Quote from bwolinsky:
If the assumption is for quarterly, then the definition is for quarterly expectations, and if the definition is for monthly, as I have seen most hedge funds do, then it is not whether this stock is going to $500 per share but well over some regressed definition far exceeding the current valuation of similar companies. There are not similar companies because Steve Jobs was a genius, and even if time was defiined as the most recent quarterly period, it is not against time whether we should measure if the price reaches $500 per share but if it reaches $1,000 per share and a value significantly beyond the variable time, which can't be determined due to heteroskedasticity and even if you do model a logarithm of market cap to the consistent variables we find that time is not be associated with the overwhelming profitability of their underpricing of such things as non-dependent or non-dependable prices of such things as their iTunes' profitability and even though we nearly eliminate the variable of typical assumptions it's often that time,when in place of profitable per amounts of share, is less than the expected value of certain assymetrical assumptions of typical price action it's not as if time is a variable more than that profitability of the theory of the business model cannot possibly exaccerabate the profitability of the probability matrix window that Appple has because of its iTunes business model, which will exaccerbate the potential profitability of the company as a whole, and bring Apple Inc. to the most profitable fourth deminensional decile of time that is not accounted for in the typical logarithmic linear regression we all know projects Apple as the most profitable definition of profitability itself as even the most entrenched model of Microsoft could ever give to a definition of economic exploitation that Apple has when given the ease of use to such potential profitability as iTunes, the iPhone, and even the iPad that could also be turned into a larger more stable and usable version as the iPhone if the iPad were turned into a profitable no questioned version of iPhone if a mere 2 usb port adaptation to microphones enabled the user to exploit the advantages of conducting business and deals in the use of that model into the epitome of economic business use by way of synching the desires of the operator/owner with that of the belililed synched use of reasonable exploitation that would allow the use of the iPad to be just as useful as the iPhone merely because of the sake of communication and out of that extended use as a communication tool. The purchasing power of iPad and iPhone users is enhanced if it is put towards its most highest end use, and that, my friend, is the definition of efficiency.
Whoa! Too hard to read - sorry. Just like Apple found out, everything has to be easy to use these days or people will ignore it!
Quote from JJacksET4:
Whoa! Too hard to read - sorry. Just like Apple found out, everything has to be easy to use these days or people will ignore it!
There is nothing easier to use than an iPhone.
Sorry it was so complicated but the premise is that if you create a product that can be used by everyone the profits should just "flow" and be that much easier to understand for the potential investor.
The "value" I'm talking about is the lograithmic linear regression, and I guarnatee against similar companies, even if you wanted to exclude the most basic pe ratio, it's obvious to understand Apple Inc. is still undervalued.
Full Disclosure: I OWN APPLE!
Quote from JJacksET4:
Just like Apple found out, everything has to be easy to use these days or people will ignore it!
The car guys figured that out decades before Apple was a gleam in Jobs' eyes.
People have better things to do with their time than waste it fighting the tools that are supposed to be helping them...
Quote from Random.Capital:
Some day the sun will supernova, too.
In the long run we're all dead.
Do you have anything more specific to say on this, or are you just shooting' the shit?
Oh, yeah, "shooting' the shit" is what supercycle's all about.
If I were to say, his calls are a contrarian indicator, given the 4 out of 4 calls I've seen where he has started a thread denouncing the rise of things like S&P indices or Apple with its' less than 14 pe, but doesn't understand that by denouncement, he has made himself an oppositely optimistic mover in the stock than any shill pumping the stock ever could have been without pessimism.
AAPL is becoming parabolic, but it is a different situation. AAPL is not a blow off top. AAPL may rise too quickly in the short term, but rather than seeing a major correction, it will only slightly pull back or consolidate near highs, gearing for another breakout.
AAPL doesn't feel like the other blow off tops we've seen lately... GLD, NFLX, etc.
People are not looking to sell their AAPL stock, they are looking to hold it as AAPL continues to steal market share. There is no fear in AAPL, like there was in NFLX.
AAPL needs to become overvalued before it corrects, and it simply is not overvalued yet.
Buyers will hold it up. Shorts are just selling to people who want to buy more.
If you want a play, try and find stocks that trade with AAPL that are overvalued. You have a better chance at shorting them.
AAPL doesn't feel like the other blow off tops we've seen lately... GLD, NFLX, etc.
People are not looking to sell their AAPL stock, they are looking to hold it as AAPL continues to steal market share. There is no fear in AAPL, like there was in NFLX.
AAPL needs to become overvalued before it corrects, and it simply is not overvalued yet.
Buyers will hold it up. Shorts are just selling to people who want to buy more.
If you want a play, try and find stocks that trade with AAPL that are overvalued. You have a better chance at shorting them.
Quote from GrandSupercycle:
02-11-12
bwolinsky:
'This is a lie.You don't make a "Apple crash" call if you're not saying you shouldn't be in it or go short.'
bwolinsky,
Like Nine_Ender you also conflate TA analysis with actual trades.
This demonstrates intentional malicious conduct and/or appalling ignorance by yourself.
I made no AAPL trade recommendation - short or long.
It will crash eventually but there is no sell signal at present.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=214546&postid=3445084
[disclosure as per http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/aapl-parabolic-irrational-exuberance/ - no AAPL position held]
I'll make it simple, this thread is entitled "The Apple Crash." The Apple crash hasn't happened, therefore you think it is either going down and people should sell short or sell their positions.
Quit being ambiguous and learn to talk in a trading community.