The "Aha" Moment!

[Overnight]

I would like to give some constructive critics.

When I watched your trades and the chart of the NQ I made the following reflection:
I think you should change your strategy and not trade such a small timeframes. You did 39 trades in a market that had at least one big move, but still ended up with a big loss. You hugely overtrade. Try to find the trend and let the profits run. You should have taken at least a big chunk in the move down. Afternoon was less trending and we see that clearly in your results as then you were pilling up the losses. Your average loss is also to big compared to your average profit. You cut your profits and let your losses run.
Your average losing trade made a loss of $250 and your average winning trade made $84 profit. You need 74.85% of winning trades just to be break even. So you can never make profits with these ratio's.

Go to larger timeframes and try to define the trend. Then just follow the trend. Far less trades, far less stress, and far more profits probably. I traded the ES which made basically the same moves. I took the drop almost completely and took in the last hour still a decent long. I missed in the afternoon a big part of the pullback, but what you miss is not important, only what you take is. So just 2 trades and a decent profit. Not trading is also trading. You don't have to jump in and out all day to be profitable. Be very selective.

I agree with you 100%. I normally don't overtrade in such a fashion, but yesterday I fell into the old trap of trying to chase a profit goal in chop in the afternoon, and by the time I realized I was in said chop it was too late. I kept trading to make up for a mistake in that noon hour, when my target was missed by like 2 ticks. That would have put me at nearly $1,000 up, which was my goal. It was a cavalcade of comedic errors after that.

I think the point of the post was that stops work in large trends, but not in chop?

 

[Overnight]

Plus on days the Naz and ES are pretty much tracking together you can take the same trade in both. If YM is tracking in cahoots that is a third trade. Trifecta.

Yes, have been mulling over the thought of taking smaller profit targets in 2 markets to make up for the larger target in one market. But there again lies the problem of simply doubling the chance of a loss by having to have a smaller stop on each.

 

[themickey]

I agree with you 100%. I normally don't overtrade in such a fashion, but yesterday I fell into the old trap of trying to chase a profit goal....

Dumbo!
Chase the methodology not a profit target.
Concentrate on executing your plan and what price action is telling you, not on what your desires to finish the day with a pot of money.
Several times in the past you have strongly suggested to me "get out, take your profit now, don't wait".
Well my system doesn't look at profits, it looks at trends.

 

[Overnight]

Dumbo!
Chase the methodology not a profit target.
Concentrate on executing your plan and what price action is telling you, not on what your desires to finish the day with a pot of money.
Several times in the past you have strongly suggested to me "get out, take your profit now, don't wait".
Well my system doesn't look at profits, it looks at trends.

Yes yes, I know! Ack! You evil mouse.

I am my own worst enemy some days. Today I stayed out, tried some sim, and it is back to the same routine of doing great there. I'll get though it.

I'll never find my "aha" moment, because those moments change as market conditions change. In fact, every day is a new aha moment lately. Ug!

 

[vanzandt]

Yes, have been mulling over the thought of taking smaller profit targets in 2 markets to make up for the larger target in one market. But there again lies the problem of simply doubling the chance of a loss by having to have a smaller stop on each.

imo... and my opinion only.... stops should only be set for catastrophic failures.
Other than that, you should be confident enough in your assessment of where you see things going and then stand your ground. You might surprise yourself. Stops will chew you up.
Zoom out the charts a bit and take in the bigger picture. Be patient on the entry, and then believe in your convictions. Give your trade some time.
......Zoom the chart out... sit on your hands.

 

[schweiz]

I think the point of the post was that stops work in large trends, but not in chop?

Trending markets have a better average profit per winning trade. And as the stops are the same in any kind of markets, the losses stay and the profits shrink. That's a problem for every trader.

 

[Sweet Bobby]

Here's how "PRM" worked for me today. I tried to let my winners run, but it was cutting the losers short bit that got me.
View attachment 197119

I used to believe in the bullshit of "cutting losses short and letting winners run" idea. But that is not PPM. (Prudent Profit Management.)

I did much better in the past following my plan, and when the plan failed, developing another plan to back up that first plan. None of it involved PRM. All PRM involves, (which B1S2 territory seems to mean stops), is loss after loss after loss. STOPS ARE A PRUDENT WAY TO LOSE YOUR MONEY EACH DAY IN A LARGE-RANGED FUTURE INSTRUMENT, THESE DAYS.

That just is not parlay to proftitay. Ix-nay on the PRM-ay. Mmmkay?

B1S2, I like you, you are a cool frood. But stop with the PRM nonsense for a while. Seriously, it is not really an edge, it is more a blunt curmudgeon to blunt people from their true trading freedoms.

This proves that you are an incompetent trader! To make things worse, you’re also a horses ass

My apologies to horses!

 

[Sweet Bobby]

Yes yes, I know! Ack! You evil mouse.

I am my own worst enemy some days. Today I stayed out, tried some sim, and it is back to the same routine of doing great there. I'll get though it.

I'll never find my "aha" moment, because those moments change as market conditions change. In fact, every day is a new aha moment lately. Ug!

Ah, that explains it. You’re a sim trader! Gotcha. Makes perfect sense.

 

[Overnight]

Other than that, you should be confident enough in your assessment of where you see things going and then stand your ground. You might surprise yourself. Stops will chew you up.
...

I KNOW! I knew you would understand. There is a video analogy I have been chewing on for over a year but cannot find a small enough snippet about the idea. Of what you say there. It is from the Hunt for Red October. Just ONE little line from Sean Connery. *sighs*

 

[Overnight]

Ah, that explains it. You’re a sim trader! Gotcha. Makes perfect sense.

So the stalker is now being stalked? Go away Sweet Bobby, this is not good for you I think. Because I eat the real, which is Oreos. You, who have proven NOTHING here on ET, and are eating the Hydrox, which is fake. Ug!