The ACD Method

[Maverick74]

ZH - In its latest quarterly hedge fund trend monitor - a survey of 804 hedge funds with $2.1 trillion of gross equity positions ($1.4 trillion long and $704 billion short) - which analyzes hedge fund holdings as of Sept 30, Goldman makes some interesting observations about the current state of the hedge fund industry. First and foremost, it finds that the average equity long/short hedge fund has posted a 10% YTD return, which while the strongest since 2013 is once again underperforming the S&P for the 7th consecutive year.

Great to see you back RedBaron! Nice graphic.

 

[koolaid]

i just started reading this book- "the logical trader" i want to know how to find a and c values of stocks ? and let me know if some one is aplying acd in indian stock market

no

 

[Robert Yanks]

i just started reading this book- "the logical trader" i want to know how to find a and c values of stocks ? and let me know if some one is aplying acd in indian stock market

Hello akash1995,

Can I assume 1995 is your DOB? If that’s true ………. God I wish I was 22 again.

Welcome to the thread. Read the book and then go slowly through this thread skim reading and not taking too many notes at this point. Then ……click the “Search”; then “More”; then in the “Posted by Member” type in “Maverick74”; then in the “Search in Forums” click “Technical Analysis”. Now, read every Mav ACD post (the threads Boss Man and Mentor) and take notes. Later you can refine your search to things like “weekly”, “monthly”, “price targets”, “stops”, etc. It’s all here.

Regarding your question how to find a and c values of stocks …. here’s what I do. The daily levels are based on a 5 minute opening range and the confirmation is 30 minutes. The weekly levels are based on Monday’s first hour opening range with a one hour confirmation. The monthly levels are based on the first day of the month opening range and the confirmation is a full day. The quarterly levels are based on the first three days of each quarter with a three day confirmation (many people use two days). The yearly levels are based on the first ten days of the year opening range with a 10 day confirmation. Mav will give you many examples of the referenced A up and A downs in the thread. Study them. Lastly, most people here don’t change their original A Up and A Down levels for a C level.

I follow the India etf INDA for my “Market Type” analysis with only a quick glance for ACD levels. The daily A Up/Down on Friday was 35.49/35.32. I’m revising my weekly levels but a standard level for last Monday would be 34.89/34.56 (so there was a weekly A Up on Tuesday). The monthly levels were 35.98/35.28 so there was a monthly A Down on 11/7. The quarterly levels are 34.06/31.96 so there was a quarterly A Up on 10/17. The first yearly levels were 29.66/24.74 and since there was a yearly A up in mid-March, I then established secondary levels using the first 10 days of July. Those levels are 35.78/30.40. Now look at the high on 11/6 of 35.79! Happens all the time. Look how price action then acted.

Everyone uses ACD differently, but I pay particular attention to price action near the A/C levels.

 

[Robert Yanks]

ZH - In its latest quarterly hedge fund trend monitor - a survey of 804 hedge funds with $2.1 trillion of gross equity positions ($1.4 trillion long and $704 billion short) - which analyzes hedge fund holdings as of Sept 30, Goldman makes some interesting observations about the current state of the hedge fund industry. First and foremost, it finds that the average equity long/short hedge fund has posted a 10% YTD return, which while the strongest since 2013 is once again underperforming the S&P for the 7th consecutive year.

Good stuff RB,

As all of us here are probably damn competitive, I've always compared my results to some index ..... usually the SPX. (And, with as much risk aversion as possible.) I used a half ass SS for years but cleaned it up recently for my family/friends who follow my market comments (2 or 3 on a good day : ) I provide them with the SS and encourage them to keep track too.

Check it out. As Larry David would say: "It's pretty ....... pretty ....... pretty ...... good."

 

[themickey]

...Check it out. As Larry David would say: "It's pretty ....... pretty ....... pretty ...... good."

So go over this again.....for 6 months you returned 4.21%.
SPX for 6 months was 8.56% return.
If correct, it's not brilliant, but not knocking you. Congrats that you have at least returned a profit rather than a loss. Also thanks for sharing, keep it up.
Edit: I notice your periods of losses by & large line up with periods of SPX losses, this is normal.

 

[Robert Yanks]

So go over this again.....for 6 months you returned 4.21%.
SPX for 6 months was 8.56% return.
If correct, it's not brilliant, but not knocking you. Congrats that you have at least returned a profit rather than a loss. Also thanks for sharing, keep it up.
Edit: I notice your periods of losses by & large line up with periods of SPX losses, this is normal.

Hello themickey,

No .... I've actually bested the spx pretty good in the last 6 months. Those are pure made up numbers I created for the example in the ss I give them. You'll notice that I started it with an even $100,000 and have it kind of follow along with general spx activity but worster on purpose.

The first tab is instructions, the 2nd tab is the example (the one I posted but updated today) and the third tab is the blank template with all formulas in place and ready for them to start their own results.

 

[Robert Yanks]

Well it’s Sunday and I’m buzzing from playing music tonight. So …. I’ll spare you my market comments and mutual fund allocation recommendations that I sent my beta testers earlier today : ) but provide a few of the attachments. (Who knows, someone might like it.)

Of short note:

On the first attachment, one BT told me to lose the Calibri and go to Arial. (So I did a little web search and Arial is top dog. There’s also various stories how Arial was basically thugged from Helvetica.) Anyway, I'm changing things to Arial.

Another person suggested that I lose one of the year returns (2013) and add a column in the weekly area that provides percentage return for the last four weeks. I might give that a go.

The 2nd attachment is Market Type and Volatility for the last 25, 50, 100 and 200 days of the SP-500. You can see that everything is Strong Bull.

The 3rd and 4th attachments are the Indices and Sector Market Type and Volatility that follow the same order as the first attachment. This is just showing the last 100 days, which is the major guide in our mutual fund timing. You can see some interesting goings on.

The last attachment is some stats on Market Type and Volatility from 1962 to last Friday. Do look at Figure 4 and specifically the number of days in Strong Bull/Quiet and Bull/Quiet and their respective average daily returns.

Lastly, if you’re not familiar with Van Tharp’s Market Type, here’s a short overview.

 

[Maverick74]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/05/essential-40-stock-index-set-to-launch-as-an-etf-in-2018.html

The Fish man was on CNBC today. It looks like he went ahead with this thing. LOL. I'm not a huge fan.

 

[Robert Yanks]

The etf GLD is sitting right at an extended double bottom; just a smidgen through the 200 day moving average and today's low is within a couple $cents of the monthly A down of 119.65

Some people will wait and see what it does on this lower edge and some will take a bite now, betting on a bounce up to the monthly A up of 123.52

 

[koolaid]

is anyone here in BTC? trade of our generation