The ACD Method

Robert Yanks said:
Regarding the SP-500, my first Yearly A Up was 2376 and you can see on a chart that it banged around there from late February until making the A Up in early May. My second Yearly A up (created in July) is 2545. You can also see that we’re now banging around that zone. (Same basic criteria go for the DOW, Naz and so on.)

Will we plow through these levels too? Well ….. I now like to look at old A levels and compare them to what was happening with SP-500 Volatility and Market Types to get a sense of what may come. (The Volatility and Market Types are stolen from Van Tharp’s Newsletters that are available for free at his web page.)

If you look at the attached you can see that not only is Volatility in “Quite” mode, but Friday set a new 57 year low of only .31% of the 20 day ATR as a percent of close. Man that’s coma quite. But, quite has created outstanding long term returns.

Additionally, if you have Bull and Strong Bull Market Types with “Quite” volatility, then it has historically signaled higher highs. Do note however that the 200 day direction has pulled back from Strong Bull to Bull but all four categories are green and continuing to show strength.

Also of note, the 100 Day Direction is the primary gage here.

(Let’s keep this great Mav educational TA thread alive.)
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How should I interpret the word "Quite"? Is that more volatile than "Volatile", but less than "Normal"? What other classifications do you use (besides "Very Volatile")?
 
Is Congress, their spouses and aids really exempt from insider trading?

Strap on your seat belt and go to the 29:33 mark.


Is there currently an indicator that tracks the stock transactions of congress, spouses and aids available to the general public? Would that be an insider indicator of legal insider trading and therefore an illegal indicator?

Do you think there is anyone out there who now gets that info and uses it to their advantage..........? Hmmmmmmmm ---------Nah ..... I guess not.

What would be the opening ranges to create our daily, weekly, monthly and yearly Congress A Up and A Down? :)

"Legal graft" ......... you just can't make this stuff up.
 
Robert Yanks said:
Is Congress, their spouses and aids really exempt from insider trading?

Strap on your seat belt and go to the 29:33 mark.


Is there currently an indicator that tracks the stock transactions of congress, spouses and aids available to the general public? Would that be an insider indicator of legal insider trading and therefore an illegal indicator?

Do you think there is anyone out there who now gets that info and uses it to their advantage..........? Hmmmmmmmm ---------Nah ..... I guess not.

What would be the opening ranges to create our daily, weekly, monthly and yearly Congress A Up and A Down? :)

"Legal graft" ......... you just can't make this stuff up.
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Robert, insider trading is a lot harder to profit from than people think. For example, if I gave you inside information on TSLA the last 3 years on every bad news event they have had and there have been many, you would be broke if you shorted ahead of that. Every bad news event has been bought. I could show you the same thing on the long side where good news is sold. We study this type of stuff in economics called the value of perfect and complete information. It's actually much less then you think and in many industries it has zero value. Trading has gotten so difficult now that even if you have tomorrow's newspaper today you still can't make a dime. :)
 
Maverick74 said:
Robert, insider trading is a lot harder to profit from than people think. For example, if I gave you inside information on TSLA the last 3 years on every bad news event they have had and there have been many, you would be broke if you shorted ahead of that. Every bad news event has been bought. I could show you the same thing on the long side where good news is sold. We study this type of stuff in economics called the value of perfect and complete information. It's actually much less then you think and in many industries it has zero value. Trading has gotten so difficult now that even if you have tomorrow's newspaper today you still can't make a dime. :)
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That makes sense. I guess it's just the idea that congress has so often exempted itself from the R&R they create for everyone else.
 
Maverick74 said:
Robert, insider trading is a lot harder to profit from than people think. For example, if I gave you inside information on TSLA the last 3 years on every bad news event they have had and there have been many, you would be broke if you shorted ahead of that. Every bad news event has been bought. I could show you the same thing on the long side where good news is sold. We study this type of stuff in economics called the value of perfect and complete information. It's actually much less then you think and in many industries it has zero value. Trading has gotten so difficult now that even if you have tomorrow's newspaper today you still can't make a dime. :)
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Hello Mav,

Here's the original story (which I hadn't read when I posted). Everyone who works for me can recite my core ethic rules:

1. Is it legal and the truth;
2. Is it fair to all concerned in the short and long run;
3. If it's discussed in a court of law, council/commission meeting or placed on the front page of the local newspaper, do I feel good about it; and
4. If I do proceed, what can go wrong.

This stuff going on in the swamp, IMO, is just wrong.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/...ock-market-trades-investments-analysis-242692
 
I send a weekly “Blind leading the blind” market view to family and friends. (As a former failed stock broker they think I know something about the market.) Like many of you I’m a market junkie and thoroughly enjoy looking at current and historical market info and then placing my bet.

I’ll spare you this week’s commentary (unless yaall wanna hear some of it next week) but I’ll post a few of the graphs they get.

Among other things, I always remind them to …… Stop, and really look at the historical results, index % changes etc and to think about them. Don’t just scan the material but know it. How are the major indices doing and how are we doing in our real money retirement mutual funds? (They know where and why I’m invested.)

Check out how the 100 day Van Tharp created market type has returned to Strong Bull. The 25,50, 100 and 200 day direction are just flat strong. (Historically, the 25 day will now swing down for a breather.)

Btw, I just looked over at the “I love me” section of my little office wall and there’s my new golf trophy for lowest average gross during Thursday night league play. (Yes, I’m bragging on myself.) :)
 

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Robert Yanks said:
I send a weekly “Blind leading the blind” market view to family and friends. (As a former failed stock broker they think I know something about the market.) Like many of you I’m a market junkie and thoroughly enjoy looking at current and historical market info and then placing my bet.

I’ll spare you this week’s commentary (unless yaall wanna hear some of it next week) but I’ll post a few of the graphs they get.

Among other things, I always remind them to …… Stop, and really look at the historical results, index % changes etc and to think about them. Don’t just scan the material but know it. How are the major indices doing and how are we doing in our real money retirement mutual funds? (They know where and why I’m invested.)

Check out how the 100 day Van Tharp created market type has returned to Strong Bull. The 25,50, 100 and 200 day direction are just flat strong. (Historically, the 25 day will now swing down for a breather.)

Btw, I just looked over at the “I love me” section of my little office wall and there’s my new golf trophy for lowest average gross during Thursday night league play. (Yes, I’m bragging on myself.) :)
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Hi Rob,

Thats a great breakdown. I tend to be pretty active on twitter which tends to be a great tool for assessing sentiment. At the moment sentiment seems to be incredibly bearish despite the bullish price action. In my opinion this bearishness will only help to propel prices higher.
 
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