The ACD Method

Although it's still very early for predictions, there is now another hurricane developed called Irma.

It's already been categorised as a cat 2 hurricane and it's not even passed the windward isles. There is talk of risk to the US but to early to tell right now.
 
Anyone watching the natty? It had a monthly aup for me last month spiked into 3ish level and then became a shit show for the rest of the month. I have the number lines at -1 for 30 and -2 for 5 days. Seems like down or chop again for this month.

On the yen complex, all pairs look choppy except usd/jpy. It's the only pair that made monthly adn for me with a negative number line for the 30 day at -10 and 5 day at -3. My numberline derivative isn't as sure though.
 
I know it's been posted here by a few of the cognoscenti that the late-day C moves mentioned in the book don't have significance, but they do seem rare occurences to me. Gold ( XAUUSD ) made a C-down on Friday.

Palladium and Platinum also have the lowest number lines for a while, and have made monthly A-downs. Anyone else tracking precious metals?
 
Regarding the SP-500, my first Yearly A Up was 2376 and you can see on a chart that it banged around there from late February until making the A Up in early May. My second Yearly A up (created in July) is 2545. You can also see that we’re now banging around that zone. (Same basic criteria go for the DOW, Naz and so on.)

Will we plow through these levels too? Well ….. I now like to look at old A levels and compare them to what was happening with SP-500 Volatility and Market Types to get a sense of what may come. (The Volatility and Market Types are stolen from Van Tharp’s Newsletters that are available for free at his web page.)

If you look at the attached you can see that not only is Volatility in “Quite” mode, but Friday set a new 57 year low of only .31% of the 20 day ATR as a percent of close. Man that’s coma quite. But, quite has created outstanding long term returns.

Additionally, if you have Bull and Strong Bull Market Types with “Quite” volatility, then it has historically signaled higher highs. Do note however that the 200 day direction has pulled back from Strong Bull to Bull but all four categories are green and continuing to show strength.

Also of note, the 100 Day Direction is the primary gage here.

(Let’s keep this great Mav educational TA thread alive.)
 

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