Sterling effort, but you've missed the latest news that Mav has gone over to the dark side. Where he once advocated manually scoring and examining to get deeper insight, he has now switched tack. I recall the time Partha advocated automated scoring and he discouraged it.
Alas, Mav encountered a gang of code heads, and has fallen in with them. Rather than lovingly taking hours to score a hundred number lines and looking at charts, he now gets the Russell 2000 and all FX and all commodities in minutes, together with probabilities for each trade.
He no longer looks at a 30D NL confirm as directional bias, he sometimes fades it.
Alas, I haven't met any code heads and I can't code yet. What I have realised is as an absolute rule using the 30D NL for directional bias is a waste of time. I use the 5D NL derivatives, not even the 5D NL. I still spend time scoring and studying charts, though mostly I can filter which charts to look at from my numbers.
I've had to add a couple of rules to filter. Ignore technicals when a fundamental release comes out. I just added another, do not trade the technicals a day before a fundamental release comes out, the big fish preposition and they really couldn't care less what my technicals say.
Took 3 quick losses Friday, worst single day in recent memory. This from a guy who is happy to lose 1R in 24 hours but hates it happening in an hour or three, forget 20 minutes in day trading.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-1340#post-4467480
Sterling effort, but you've missed the latest news that Mav has gone over to the dark side. Where he once advocated manually scoring and examining to get deeper insight, he has now switched tack. I recall the time Partha advocated automated scoring and he discouraged it.
Alas, Mav encountered a gang of code heads, and has fallen in with them. Rather than lovingly taking hours to score a hundred number lines and looking at charts, he now gets the Russell 2000 and all FX and all commodities in minutes, together with probabilities for each trade.
He no longer looks at a 30D NL confirm as directional bias, he sometimes fades it.
Alas, I haven't met any code heads and I can't code yet. What I have realised is as an absolute rule using the 30D NL for directional bias is a waste of time. I use the 5D NL derivatives, not even the 5D NL. I still spend time scoring and studying charts, though mostly I can filter which charts to look at from my numbers.
I've had to add a couple of rules to filter. Ignore technicals when a fundamental release comes out. I just added another, do not trade the technicals a day before a fundamental release comes out, the big fish preposition and they really couldn't care less what my technicals say.
Took 3 quick losses Friday, worst single day in recent memory. This from a guy who is happy to lose 1R in 24 hours but hates it happening in an hour or three, forget 20 minutes in day trading.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-1340#post-4467480
Haven't you automated scoring the NLs? I will as soon as I can.Would love to hear Mav and others' opinion on the current state of the NL. I feel Mav is still advocating its importance vs varying opinions from others. The thing is...the NL is very tedious to calculate...so if its importance is in question...I'd love to hear opinions. Maybe the low volatility market has dampen some of the significance of such a NL since NL is based on vol?
Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
Would love to hear Mav and others' opinion on the current state of the NL. I feel Mav is still advocating its importance vs varying opinions from others. The thing is...the NL is very tedious to calculate...so if its importance is in question...I'd love to hear opinions. Maybe the low volatility market has dampen some of the significance of such a NL since NL is based on vol?
Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
Well, you have my admiration and envy. All I can do at this stage is add filters to avoid being bitten on the backside. What I would love to do is analyse what happens the day before the data release when the technicals say x.Yeah, I read some of that.
Ultimately, I think most of us here got the big picture from posts like the ones I mentioned and refined things to suit our own beliefs. Back then, I found a lot of value reading those posts so I thought others might too.
I am a "code head" so I can relate to what Mav is doing. I went through the same thing recently when I built my testing framework.
Let me say this with absolute certainty.I think a many have said that the NL is a good tool to measure relative strength/weakness within a portfolio of instruments. In my opinion, its useless if you are trading a couple of correlated markets or just one market.
Since my participation is limited to the petroleum complex, I have not found value in using NLs. I dont mean to say that NLs dont work but that in my case, I cannot wait on the sidelines while the NLs confirm. The capital at my disposal needs to be put to work every day.
Well, you have my admiration and envy. All I can do at this stage is add filters to avoid being bitten on the backside. What I would love to do is analyse what happens the day before the data release when the technicals say x.
Not waiting for rain, I'm using simple Excel nested IFs to analyse how far currencies can move from the EMA. So far for my Guinea pig, AUDUSD, it's a bit above 3% as a max, mostly not. Looking to refine trade management, and having to do it the hard way.
Thanks, I might just do that while educating myself.How about looking for a backtesting tool in Excel? I am sure someone is selling it. When you add a filter, at least you will know for sure whether your historical results would have been better or worse.
the big fish preposition and they really couldn't care less what my technicals say.
Not the day and hours before a rate decision or major data. After the dust dies down yes.Agreed technicals mean nothing to the big fish and it is a huge mistake to try and make sense of a market. Instead we should be listening to the market, as when you know how to listen the market can tell you a great deal of information and ACD gives you the best method I have seen yet for reading the intentions of others.