http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ic-13-trillion-sp-500-options-expire-tomorrow
JPMorgan's Kolanovic: "$1.3 Trillion In S&P 500 Options Expire Tomorrow"
JPMorgan's Kolanovic: "$1.3 Trillion In S&P 500 Options Expire Tomorrow"
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Interesting how some people think outside the box in order to succeed in the markets.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
I'm curious if anyone here can enlighten me on how to use weekly, monthly, quarterly levels. I'm getting huge value out of number lines but in spite of tons of testing and analysis I have yet to find a use for the levels. I have tested failures, breakouts, sorting products by % above and below levels, and haven't found anything I can use yet. There is minimal value in the sorting, but it is nothing that NLs aren't already telling me. Any pointers?
This right here is the most useful thing I have come up with. It is the % above or below the level a product closes at. It highlights for me especially the reversals, but the NLs seem to do it better so I'm not really using it for much right now.
I would like your assessment or analysis on when price closes above/below the monthly, quarterly, or yearly A level. I think Mav alluded to this somewhere before that the earlier the level is breached the more useful the signal.
That's really what I am trying to figure out. So far the most promising concepts I have found are using it as a screen to look for mean reversion trades. For trend and momentum following, from what I have see good trades start from anywhere in relation to the levels. I'm going to keep studying though...
This shows a little better my current idea I'm exploring. That last pic had tight levels from a weekly setting this reflects better the monthly levels, and the brighter colors would be around where it seems you might be looking for a reversion trade.
It is said you can draw a line anywhere on a blank chart, add in candles and it will show S/R somewhere, sometime. These lines aren't any different unless you look at them the same way you look at the daily A levels.
I look at them as volatility levels that can ordinarily be reached, based on current volatility. For daily A levels, I have the OR and a factor based on today's volatility that sets the A levels. It is because I think of them as volatility levels that I dislike using a % of the 20ATR say. For the monthly I use the first day of the month as the OR and a current volatility factor to set the A levels. So too quarterly.
If price blasts through, then all it means is there is sufficient momentum to take it through, how much of a follow through is anyones guess. But if price doesn't have the momentum, it should fail and that is a good point to enter and set a stop outside of. I don't trade the daily to be clear, it's just for scoring my number lines, but even here I look for a clear and decisive breach rather than just poking above and hanging around that level. In FX I have found such weak breaching is just noise, which is why I don't even use half the OR time, I want it much longer than the OR so that it is meaningful.
Where I am handicapped currently is I did my research manually, months of it, and devised all my settings for all my instruments using the same standards. This clearly is not ideal.
With the ability to code, I would test instruments individually. Say for the first day as OR, how far above or below does it typically go before it fails, relate that by whatever means to current volatility, and establish a factor.
For FX I would separate months with CB Rate decisions, GDP releases, and perhaps the months before the rate decisions as markets read data into decision probabilities. I know it's a lot of work, but it's a lot simpler if one can code and is willing to put in the effort, as you clearly are.
Go through these posts for a better understanding of Macro ACD:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-836#post-3941109
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-972#post-4145422
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-807#post-3922338
Sterling effort, but you've missed the latest news that Mav has gone over to the dark side. Where he once advocated manually scoring and examining to get deeper insight, he has now switched tack. I recall the time Partha advocated automated scoring and he discouraged it.
Alas, Mav encountered a gang of code heads, and has fallen in with them. Rather than lovingly taking hours to score a hundred number lines and looking at charts, he now gets the Russell 2000 and all FX and all commodities in minutes, together with probabilities for each trade.
He no longer looks at a 30D NL confirm as directional bias, he sometimes fades it.
Alas, I haven't met any code heads and I can't code yet. What I have realised is as an absolute rule using the 30D NL for directional bias is a waste of time. I use the 5D NL derivatives, not even the 5D NL. I still spend time scoring and studying charts, though mostly I can filter which charts to look at from my numbers.
I've had to add a couple of rules to filter. Ignore technicals when a fundamental release comes out. I just added another, do not trade the technicals a day before a fundamental release comes out, the big fish preposition and they really couldn't care less what my technicals say.
Took 3 quick losses Friday, worst single day in recent memory. This from a guy who is happy to lose 1R in 24 hours but hates it happening in an hour or three, forget 20 minutes in day trading.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-1340#post-4467480