A bunch of the younger folks in my office are trading ETH these days which has peaked my interest recently. There has been some security issues with some of the exchanges they're using, but from a technical/ACD perspective it looks as though I could utilize my swing methods to trade those markets.
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Mav it looks like your call from 2015 has played itself out like you expected it would. With US stocks at all-time highs, and volatility sitting at 20 year lows, do you have any thoughts about what comes next? Any possible black swans on the horizon that you think the market is ignoring?
I do have have another MAV call to make....
Here's something I shared over PM but I thought would help out shed some light on crypto:
1)China in February banned bitcoin withdrawals. Those bitcoins are stuck on Chinese exchanges going absolutely nowhere.
2)The hash rate(difficulty) of all altcoin mining increases over time.
3)Mainlander Chinese still have a need to get money out of the country.
4)Japan legalized crypto beginning of April.
So you have 2 macro instances where supply is decreasing and 2 macro instances where demand is increasing. Marinate on these thoughts.
I'm a buyer on any correction.
1)China in February banned bitcoin withdrawals. Those bitcoins are stuck on Chinese exchanges going absolutely nowhere.
2)The hash rate(difficulty) of all altcoin mining increases over time.
3)Mainlander Chinese still have a need to get money out of the country.
4)Japan legalized crypto beginning of April.
So you have 2 macro instances where supply is decreasing and 2 macro instances where demand is increasing. Marinate on these thoughts.
I'm a buyer on any correction.
My problem with Bitcoin is it's value is in the technology to move money securely. Any altcoin can do the same thing. The price of Bitcoin is a massive speculative bubble and it could be replaced by xcoin at any time at the desire of the miners etc. Once new coins run out they will move to another coin, if not sooner. I have personally used it for some bullion transactions and it was very slow. I wouldn't be surprised if a major bank rolls out a coin with better speed and security that will replace Bitcoin, with some lobbying assistance of course.
There are already a bunch of coins that are much faster then bitcoin. BTC just has first mover advantage + media hype going for it. Will people care to switch to another coin in the future? Who knows maybe if transaction times start taking days or fees start getting expensive.
I can't find it now but recently read coinbase opened 400k new accounts in the past 30 days, that's huge! It also confirms my suspicion that this is a bubble and as usual the public will be left holding the bag.
You also have articles like this I mean comeon!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dy...oin-amid-record-highs-2017-05-09?link=sfmw_tw
The question is when, not gonna pretend I kniw the answer but 2000 is a nice round number.
I can't find it now but recently read coinbase opened 400k new accounts in the past 30 days, that's huge! It also confirms my suspicion that this is a bubble and as usual the public will be left holding the bag.
You also have articles like this I mean comeon!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dy...oin-amid-record-highs-2017-05-09?link=sfmw_tw
The question is when, not gonna pretend I kniw the answer but 2000 is a nice round number.
Could you shed some insight Mav? It's always a pleasure to hear what you're thinking.
I'm not too excited to be on the other side of your trade but all of my ACD tools are telling me to short. Are you still buying? My monthly is -5 and climbing, and my short term signals went negative on 5/9, which is when I got short. I also see acceptance right at the monthly A down level.
Now's a good time to test my new system, it's showing this particular setup has occurred twice in the past three years and that there's 100% chance of the Euro increasing at least 1% within the next 10 days.
100%? come on....