The ACD Method

[justrading]

AUD selling off, gold up. But right now gold is faltering at weekly and monthly A up. If it rolls over AUD should pick up speed.

So when you guys are looking at a lot of stuff, how do you hone in on which ones to actually trade? 30 day?

I focus primarily on FX and some of the futures, but mainly FX. I tend to steer away from stuff that is too noisy, like CL when every OPEC pronouncement sends the price gyrating.

Let me give an explanation of ACD and your timeframe.

If you are day trading FX, which I don't do, it is essential you are aware of data releases, CB Meetings/Rate decisions and members speaking, and any geopolitical risk like elections. In the run up to Brexit, I hunted down schedules for release of poll results so I wouldn't make an entry and be blindsided shortly after, I'd wait for the release then decide on an entry.

If you are swing trading, it is absolutely essential that in addition to all the above, you keep a very keen eye on geopolitical developments and overall sentiment.

Long story short, it doesn't matter what your number lines say, if headline news happens, that will take precedence.

A page back I mentioned that my 30D NL for EURUSD confirmed negative on 20th March. If I had gone short on 21st or 22nd, in all likelihood I would have been stopped out.

Around the time I got the confirmation, the issue of repealing the Affordable Care Act became news, and with uncertainty that Trump would get the votes, chatter began about the Trump Trade being over, that if he couldn't get his own party to support him, he'd have difficulty delivering on tax reform and infrastructure spending. Equities and the USD softened, and rather than EURUSD going down, it went up. If you look at the USD Index chart you see that on 15th March it went sharply down, then drifted lower after.

The entry should have been on 29th March; after 1 day above the 200D EMA, EURUSD closed below on the 28th. Also, my NL derivatives for the 28th were solidly negative. I wasn't trading on the 29th, so I went short on the 30th, a day late.

I have NLs on the indices of all the major currencies and when I want to trade a pair, I'll favour the strongest against the weakest. I'll avoid something that has a geopolitical event coming up and pick another currency instead.

If you are looking at 30D NLs to decide, don't look in isolation, it doesn't mean a +15 is stronger than a +10 if the +15 was at +30 a while back and is weakening rapidly. The 5D will give you an idea of more recent direction, also look at the charts and see what's above and below.

 

[SteveM]

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...aders-are-looking-at-the-wrong-inventory-data

Read it up boys. I'm pretty much in agreement on his thesis.

Interesting - so basically the concept is with the crack spread increasing coupled with the summer driving season, refiners are much more incentivized to convert more crude into gas, thus lowering these huge crude inventories over time?

If I'm not mistaken the symbol to monitor crack spread in thinkorswim is /RB*42-/CL , which shows the following:

 

[Maverick74]

Interesting - so basically the concept is with the crack spread increasing coupled with the summer driving season, refiners are much more incentivized to convert more crude into gas, thus lowering these huge crude inventories over time?

If I'm not mistaken the symbol to monitor crack spread in thinkorswim is /RB*42-/CL , which shows the following:

View attachment 172373

You really need to get an exchange traded quote since TOS does a shitty job when you use that formula. Also, there are gaps on the charts since its very seasonal so it's hard to look at it in one continuous stream. But yes, the margins for refiners (crack spread) determines how much product they want to produce and how much to store. When margins are widening they will demand more crude oil. Typically summer is the peak season for oil because of gasoline demand. Now the market knows that of course so it becomes a game of relative demand vs seasonal averages.

 

[sparkyunited]

It'll be interesting to see where Gold goes from here. Still hovering under that Monthly A up. Some folks will be watching the 200DMA which is right overhead at the moment too.

 

[baggerlord]

I am still watching it for a short but it is showing strength short term(obviously). Either way I'll miss it if it triggers. Work is interfering with trading again.

 

[justrading]

Interesting, floor price for 2017 supposedly $38/barrel.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

 

[baggerlord]

I like a gold short here at 1255 with a 2.5 pt stop and a time stop of weak price action this NY session.

 

[baggerlord]

For management, my wife has received instruction on how to run the ACD code and if the trade survives until I leave town shortly, she will close it when my fast derivative goes positive.

 

[Maverick74]

For management, my wife has received instruction on how to run the ACD code and if the trade survives until I leave town shortly, she will close it when my fast derivative goes positive.

Where do you find such a woman?

 

[baggerlord]

After teaching Africans to count and tell time,just so you can teach them to run operations etc, teaching a college educated American to follow a little checklist is pretty easy.