The ACD Method

I think gambling may provide a useful analogy in that an obvious consensus bet will have a lousy payoff. The big payoffs come from things no one saw coming. It seems that most of the time the markets operate in a similar way hence Mav's constant urging to trade things no one is talking about.

It was hard for me to buy into it at first, but as you say makes total sense when you think about it.
 
smallStops said:
Escuse me, is this news to explain why the Eur has been down lately , or are they saying that more downmove are to be expected?
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It's already been done so probably explains why EUR has been down. Absent any catalyst, EUR will probably head down more as the French Election approaches (April 23rd and 2nd round May 7th).

I'm short EUR/USD, with US rate hikes on the table that's my preferred cross for now. I scratched the EURAUD short as I think USD is a better bet.
 
justrading said:
It's already been done so probably explains why EUR has been down. Absent any catalyst, EUR will probably head down more as the French Election approaches (April 23rd and 2nd round May 7th).

I'm short EUR/USD, with US rate hikes on the table that's my preferred cross for now. I scratched the EURAUD short as I think USD is a better bet.
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I don't track euro yet because I am slow expanding beyond gold, with things I think I understand pretty well. But I am tracking dollar. I'm not sure on your time frame but on my 30 day, 10 day, and really fast derivative I have dollar shifting negative right now.

I'm also liking a palladium short here. Its at the weekly A up and rejecting at the moment, and NLs are looking pretty weak. I still like gold short idea but need to see what my fast NL looks like after today.
 
baggerlord said:
I don't track euro yet because I am slow expanding beyond gold, with things I think I understand pretty well. But I am tracking dollar. I'm not sure on your time frame but on my 30 day, 10 day, and really fast derivative I have dollar shifting negative right now.

I'm also liking a palladium short here. Its at the weekly A up and rejecting at the moment, and NLs are looking pretty weak. I still like gold short idea but need to see what my fast NL looks like after today.
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30D NL on EURUSD confirmed negative for me on 20th March, I was actually late entering because life got in the way of trading. The 5 day swings around of course, but confirmed negative on Friday.

USD Index is still confirmed positive on the 30D NL and 5D NL confirmed for me again on 29th March.

I tend to take a longer view and ignore short weak patches and such, so USD being weak for a few days doesn't change my trade outlook.
 
I like that we can all have our interpretation of ACD and hopefully still all make money. I'm definitely fine tuning my parameters to be more oriented to swing trading so that would explain the differences. My 5 day on dollar went positive on 3/28 but my 30 day is pretty flat. I realized I made a typo last post when I referred to my 10 day. I meant 5 day and that went negative again on Friday for me. I believe Mav resets his 30 day each month. Do you do that as well? I've tried both and am leaning towards the reset.
 
baggerlord said:
I like that we can all have our interpretation of ACD and hopefully still all make money. I'm definitely fine tuning my parameters to be more oriented to swing trading so that would explain the differences. My 5 day on dollar went positive on 3/28 but my 30 day is pretty flat. I realized I made a typo last post when I referred to my 10 day. I meant 5 day and that went negative again on Friday for me. I believe Mav resets his 30 day each month. Do you do that as well? I've tried both and am leaning towards the reset.
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No he doesn't reset, that is a separate Monthly number line that is interpreted in conjunction with the Monthly A levels. The 30 day is rolling on an ongoing basis and when he says it has reset, what he means is it has gone back to 0.

Particularly with FX there is going to quite a bit of mean reversion, so if you anticipate a sustained directional move, there will be a lot of ebbing and flowing along the way.

For any Euro trade, expect quite a bit of volatility as headline news like poll results can cause sudden gyrations that could well be short lived. If your stop is too tight, you risk getting taken out on such a swing.

See this article as an example. There will be a lot of speculation on the outcome, polls released and so forth. This follows an article I read earlier today predicting a lot of people may stay away from the polls as they are disillusioned. This is interpreted as benefitting Le Pen because her supporters are more committed hard-core types compared to Macrons.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
 
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