The ACD Method

SteveM said:
If I remember correctly from Fisher's ACD seminar videos, he said the change in trend model for stocks was based off seasonal tendencies. Last time I checked his website, he is no longer providing that info.

I built an excel model a few years ago that pulled historical price data and conducted similar analysis. There was some value in it; usually you'd find stocks that perform really well during a certain couple weeks of the year, and then you'd dig deeper and learn that Q3 earnings results were consistently good every year for the 5 years prior.

There are Excel models freely available online that will pull the historical price data automatically for you; with some tinkering you can setup a similar seasonal model fairly easily.
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I went back to watch the video, he actually says it's based on a Gann indicator that works for some reason. But since he doesn't provide the info anymore maybe it doesn't work anymore.
 
EUR/USD was horrible to trade on intraday timeframe this month (unlike December). Here's numberline values for January (based on 20 min OR, 10 pip A value and RTH defined as 7am to 7pm GMT and a slight discretionary judgement):
eurusd_2017_jan.png

On the other hand, it made a good monthly A up and went on upwards with large counter-trend retracements and is near the month's high currently.

I guess this is what you get for following only one market.
 
test_user said:
EUR/USD was horrible to trade on intraday timeframe this month (unlike December). Here's numberline values for January (based on 20 min OR, 10 pip A value and RTH defined as 7am to 7pm GMT and a slight discretionary judgement):
View attachment 170195

On the other hand, it made a good monthly A up and went on upwards with large counter-trend retracements and is near the month's high currently.

I guess this is what you get for following only one market.
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I have a very different NL but my parameters are different.

I use 8am GMT OR, 20 mins, 24 hours.

That gives me for EURUSD:
-2
2
4
-2
3
-3
4
-4
3
2
2
-3
4
4
0
-1
 
Apollonius said:
I have a very different NL but my parameters are different.

I use 8am GMT OR, 20 mins, 24 hours.

That gives me for EURUSD:
-2
2
4
-2
3
-3
4
-4
3
2
2
-3
4
4
0
-1
More...

Interesting. What kind of NL did you get for December?
I have determined that the time period between 7am and 7pm GMT is where the most activity (I used tick count) occurs. I considered the rest to be "overnight". But from my observations, a lot of movement does happen during those "non active" periods!
 
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