Having been through bull and bear markets before...what "indicators" would be you be looking at to try and gauge that top? Would you look at ISEE sentiment? ATM SPY premiums for puts and volume? I don't think we'll see a flattening of the yield curve any time soon.
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
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Having been through bull and bear markets before...what "indicators" would be you be looking at to try and gauge that top? Would you look at ISEE sentiment? ATM SPY premiums for puts and volume? I don't think we'll see a flattening of the yield curve any time soon.
You want to see a massive increase in volume at the highs. You want to know that everyone is on board the train. That's the time to get off.
Need to be more specific. VIX cash was priced at a discount to VX futures and they are converging somewhat. I try to look at the spread between ATM ES or SPX options for 30 day term structures vs the VX futures. They go back and forth between discounts and premiums. The VIX cash deeply discounted and is now catching up. The VX futures are at a slight premium to the SPX and ES options.
Or put more simply, I think we overshot to the downside on the discount and are simply reverting back.
I took the time to do try and figure out where the sentiment is today. It seems the more I read that sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish on the stock indices at the moment.
The ISEE index closed yesterday at 38(for all indexes and elf's only), the last time we had a reading this low was 03/11/2016 also coinciding with the day before the November lows were put in by the indexes.
From the above I can only gather that we are not in top forming territory and while all this bearishness exists I can see us moving higher still.
Now you can also take me saying the above as a fade and perhaps we will top out tomorrow
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The ISEE index closed yesterday at 38(for all indexes and elf's only), the last time we had a reading this low was 03/11/2016 also coinciding with the day before the November lows were put in by the indexes.
From the above I can only gather that we are not in top forming territory and while all this bearishness exists I can see us moving higher still.
Now you can also take me saying the above as a fade and perhaps we will top out tomorrow
.Thanks. Always more to learn.
I took the time to do try and figure out where the sentiment is today. It seems the more I read that sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish on the stock indices at the moment.
The ISEE index closed yesterday at 38(for all indexes and elf's only), the last time we had a reading this low was 03/11/2016 also coinciding with the day before the November lows were put in by the indexes.
From the above I can only gather that we are not in top forming territory and while all this bearishness exists I can see us moving higher still.
Now you can also take me saying the above as a fade and perhaps we will top out tomorrow
I like to watch solely the only equities for ISEE since that represents the creme le creme of mkt specs. These are opening only call buyers in equity names.
Thanks thats interesting to know. I have found the all indexes and etf's to work well but your right the equities only definitely does highlight the creme de la creme.
Question: Mav have you ever applied volume significance to studies using ISEE data?
Thanks.
Not Yet!