The ACD Method

Ok I've sullied this thread enough. Peace, out. But I did order a copy of Fisher's book. So I can feel like I know what you guys are talking about for a change.
 
Was curious to learn how many people who follow this thread use ACD method intraday ... and whether you only take 2 trades per market per day. As I think Mark mentioned that if you get 2 stop outs (one in each direction) .. its time for the movies.
 
sleepy said:
Was curious to learn how many people who follow this thread use ACD method intraday ... and whether you only take 2 trades per market per day. As I think Mark mentioned that if you get 2 stop outs (one in each direction) .. its time for the movies.
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ACD works great intraday, by definition it has to since all our number lines are being derived from intra-day levels. The problem with intra-day trading in general is risk. While most traders incorrectly believe that swing trading involves more risk since they are holding overnight what they are not accounting for is the accumulation of small losses over time of intra-day trading. The so called, death by a thousand cuts. One of the issues all traders have to deal with is the noise factor. The variance around the model. There is no way to get rid of the noise, you have to live with. In a perfect world, you model the "expected noise" so you position size correctly so you can live through it but intra-day traders are time constrained if they have to get out at market close. This means one might have to live with a market where the noise dominates the signal. The signal might be valid, but if you don't have enough time to sit out the noise, the noise wins.

This is one of the reasons why Fisher talks about time stops and not going back to the well over and over again. Traders who stop out, re-enter then stop out again, then re-enter and get stopped out again are destined for ruin. There is no mathematical way to overcome that. Why? Because of the time constraint. As time goes by through the day, your opportunity to generate losses increases and your ability to make them back decreases proportionally.

So in order to trade intra-day you better bring some math skills to the table because position sizing is absolutely critical and you better have some statistics skills in your tool box. If one has perfect information (which they won't) they could size perfectly and never lose money. Since we don't have perfect information, one has to estimate. The better you can estimate this risk to get closer to the perfect information, the higher the odds of success. Sadly to say, most ETers don't have this skill and think daytrading is all about honoring your stops and having good risk to reward ratios which honestly, are totally irrelevant to success. Hence the huge failure rates. If you want to see examples of this, peruse the topstep threads and collect the data.
 
Waiting for new poll numbers maybe.

I'm short USD.JPY, and I still think it's a good trade. Something tells me it will not all be over when the results come in.
 
trilogic said:
How did you do and the combine, did you apply the ACD method, if not why ?
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You know sunshine, last I heard Mav is a PM in a multi yard fund.

Regardless, he has helped boatloads of people over the years with his posts on this thread.

If you have no value to add here, piss off.
 
trilogic said:
learn most from failure.... pun intended!
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I really don't care what you think or feel about Mav or ACD. There are guys who post here who haven't even read the book.

My basic point is this is the one thread on ET that has managed to steer clear of negativity. Please respect that.

If you feel strongly enough, start a thread in Feedback saying what a fraud Mav is, and what gullible idiots all who believe his shit are.

But please, keep it out of this thread.
 
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