The ACD Method

logicaltrader said:
A 21.5 cent move in front RB is like the BREXIT move on the ES. In ACD terms, that move in the ES went from the QAUp all the way to the QADn in a matter of hours. This one in RB peeked past the QAUp but was about 5-6 cents short of the QADn when it started. So in that sense it was slightly smaller than the BREXIT move.

In terms of dollars, the move in the ES was about 120 points which would be a $6000/contract move. The RB move is a $9000/contract move from the last settle to the high and this move was made in under 2 minutes while the ES move took 7 hours.

The move in spreads is much bigger in magnitude like Mav said because of in terms of the ATR, its almost 15-20 times the ATR. Think about it this way, if you are spec trading this instrument with the biggest set of brass ones, you do not have the capacity of even a 5 ATR stop. I promise you, anyone spec short the RB front spread is shitting all over right now because we are still hanging around +750 after having settled around parity. Plus, this time, the pipeline issue is far severe than it was 2 months ago when we had a similar spike. Back in Sep, the pipeline issue gradually developed over a day or so and the front rallied about 6-7 cents over 4 days. Today's move was an almost 10 cent move in a matter of a couple of minutes.
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Also the move happened when there was absolutely NO liquidity so if you were a big swinger there were no size offers to lift. When moves like this happen this screen gets very very quiet.
 
Maverick74 said:
...The room is full and the door out is small and appears to be jammed.
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Jammed exit today in equities.....I've heard that institutions often start adjusting portfolios on 1st trading day of the month...will be interesting to see if this selling has follow-through.
 
justrading said:
Risk off in FX also, CHF and JPY stronger.
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Sort of a mixed bag as far as risk goes. You also had Aussie and Pound rally pretty hard last nite, then the Euro. Cad very conflicted. You sort of have to call it as you see it. I just couldn't hold onto the USD/JPY short as it bounced around 104.80. Sitting on my hands now, reading The Logical Trader PDF. It's a pretty good book. Don't know if any of you have heard of it.
 
Cswim63 said:
Sort of a mixed bag as far as risk goes. You also had Aussie and Pound rally pretty hard last nite, then the Euro. Cad very conflicted. You sort of have to call it as you see it. I just couldn't hold onto the USD/JPY short as it bounced around 104.80. Sitting on my hands now, reading The Logical Trader PDF. It's a pretty good book. Don't know if any of you have heard of it.
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Looking at the indices, both Aussie and Pound have given back those gains. USD weaker too so if you look at the Euro crosses with those 2 currencies, for example, you see the weakness today.
 
hoop121 said:
man, when that HJ decided there would be no winter for the weary, it really decided to deflate that premium
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Yeah my HJ model price has been predicting < .10 for weeks now. I thought the model was broken. LOL. We were trading at a .20 premium to my model for over two months. It's finally converging.
 
justrading said:
Looking at the indices, both Aussie and Pound have given back those gains. USD weaker too so if you look at the Euro crosses with those 2 currencies, for example, you see the weakness today.
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I'm in agreeance wit dat. I was flat by 730 am . Sold out of Aussie on the push above 50 last night, luckily had a limit on GBP above .60, and thought the Euro would at least stall at 1.10. So I missed the rest of the move. Still a big big nite and I refuse to give a penny back. Watching copper as an indicator but I don't trade it. This level seems key.
 
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