The ACD Method

[justrading]

The 30DNL has one more day to confirm negative, but the monthly NL is just meandering about.

It is still above my Mthly ADn, and it's still early September. Just below that is my Qtrly A Dn, so a bounce is possible given the confluence of the 2 levels.

Mthly - 167 17/32
Qtrly - 167 9/32

 

[SteveM]

Interesting that we were able to take out the July 14th /ES low in one trading day. Lots of accumulated longs over the last couple of months suddenly find themselves in the red.

Is today just a puke (as Mav called it), which leads to a quick reversal up like we did in days following Brexit, or is this the start of something more?

 

[Maverick74]

All the tiny little gains since 7/11 all wiped out in a single day for ES.

 

[Maverick74]

Almost at the monthly A down Koolaid.

 

[Maverick74]

Every sharp selloff on news has squeezed the shorts out. I think most have thrown in the towel. And I don't think anyone is calling for a crash. It's not binary either we go higher or we crash. I think we can pullback 3% to 5% here and rip to new highs by end of year. My number line sheet is garbage right now meaning all my stocks (2500) are falling apart at the seams.

Good call Mav!

 

[koolaid]

Almost at the monthly A down Koolaid.

To the monthly A down and then back up...what do you make of all this?

 

[Maverick74]

To the monthly A down and then back up...what do you make of all this?

Number lines are choppy. Market is choppy.

 

[SteveM]

Holy volatility, Batman...

I still think the real story here is the downside breakout in the 30-year.

 

[Maverick74]

Holy volatility, Batman...

I still think the real story here is the downside breakout in the 30-year.

Bonds were a great tell that something in the air was amiss. A day like today would normally see the 30 year up 2 handles. The market has changed guys, trade accordingly. These transition periods usually mark the litmus test of whether or not this is just a hobby for you or whether or not you belong in this game long term. It's not an introspective question, your p&l has the answer for you.

 

[koolaid]

Bonds were a great tell that something in the air was amiss. A day like today would normally see the 30 year up 2 handles. The market has changed guys, trade accordingly. These transition periods usually mark the litmus test of whether or not this is just a hobby for you or whether or not you belong in this game long term. It's not an introspective question, your p&l has the answer for you.

True. Never actually had the time to do this full-time. Trading is so hard because it requires capital and for someone starting out...they have to continue working to acquire said capital and cannot completely go full time and dedicate 100% until they're already profitable. It's a catch-22 situation...you need to be successful to go full-time but you need to be full-time to have a chance at success.