I've never looked at really long term number lines. I have the QTR levels and yearly levels which can be used for longer term trends. You need to be careful with long term forecasts. I would be more inclined maybe to create weekly number lines which you could use 30 weekly data points and score the weeks like the days.
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
I am about to begin forward testing on my own customized version of the ACD Method to trade ES and CL intraday. I am just looking for some feed back here, if I trade confirmed A's
with OR%<20 and look to fade failed A's with OR%>=20 will I miss too many good trend days? I know I will get a lot of trades on the fade side.
with OR%<20 and look to fade failed A's with OR%>=20 will I miss too many good trend days? I know I will get a lot of trades on the fade side.
You can't do anything without the number lines. The number lines are going to increase your odds of catching the good trend days.
Maybe I should come up with rules that allow better flexibility to OR% criteria based on what the Number Lines say.For example, it must take a heck of a strong number line for you to take a confirmed A ^ when the OR%>40
Time for me to put on a pot of coffee and go back to drawing board yet again
Time for me to put on a pot of coffee and go back to drawing board yet again
I am going to start researching 5 Day NLs and how that influences my OR% Playbook. I am trading intraday and I don't mean to go against the creator of ACD Mark Fisher but 30 Days for the NL is too long for me.
When I started doing what you are about to start, I got my butt kicked. The thing is, you cannot trade intraday A's consistently the same way every day because you are going to miss the big picture.
I would suggest you research this thread a bit more. There is a ton of stuff Mav wrote on number lines and on how to use A values of the different time frames. Below I am referencing some of these discussions. Try to build your model so that you know what the macro ACD picture looks like when you are trading intra-day:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-836#post-3941109
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-972#post-4145422
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-807#post-3922338
Thanks for the links logicaltrader.
The Biotech Sector (IBB) went positive on Thursday for the first time in a good while (am I the last one here still using conventional counting ) The obvious chart patterns are a long term triple bottom and a new triple top breakout. (Btw, Mav’s vol index is only a 4.)
The top monthly RS performers with a puke possibility include: NKTR, RGEN, LGND, SUPN, LMNX.
) The obvious chart patterns are a long term triple bottom and a new triple top breakout. (Btw, Mav’s vol index is only a 4.)The top monthly RS performers with a puke possibility include: NKTR, RGEN, LGND, SUPN, LMNX.
Look like CL will have a -4 today to making a -9 at the end of the day. Tomorrow's EIA report along w/ glut on gasoline inventory (doesn't mean anything to me, just an headline for those think it's important), I think CL prob going to hit around 37.6.
I'm building my own NLs and I couldn't find the typical OR for weekly and quarterly. Any help is appreciated.
Thanks
I'm building my own NLs and I couldn't find the typical OR for weekly and quarterly. Any help is appreciated.
Thanks
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