The ACD Method

[SkyChef]

Hi everybody, (and Maverick)
I daytrade ES/CL (couple trades per day, not a whole lot) using MP on the same principle as Robin Mesch using it but I noticed my entry isn't that satisfying. There are setups to use but the references & stop loss are so hard coded and predictable. I was looking for way to improve it & remove the certain uncertainties and here comes the ACD. I've read the book, watched the tapes and about 50 pages of this thread already from the beginning and have my own coding of ACD into my system. I also subscribe for Fisher's freebies just to see what the differences between yesterday & today ACD on his website. Remarkable that there are some little tunings here & there but the main principle remained intact after so many years.
I could see the improvement right of the batch in my method.
Just a note to say thank you that your thread isn't lost in a wasted land.
Chef.

 

[Robert Yanks]

Anyone seen Robert Yanks or Red Baron lately?

Hey Boss!

Right here following your posts. Anytime you talk about anything ACD or trading related I read it. I know I can say for all us Mav trained ACD followers that we love to see you post. Even if you think you said it before … you always say it a little differently and sometimes your opinion changes because you have gained additional knowledge. Five day NL's .... 30 day NL's .... you buy at this pullback spot, etc etc .... man it is music to our reading ear. It's a subject we never tire of hearing or discussing.

We love you long time.

 

[justrading]

Hey Boss!

Right here following your posts. Anytime you talk about anything ACD or trading related I read it. I know I can say for all us Mav trained ACD followers that we love to see you post. Even if you think you said it before … you always say it a little differently and sometimes your opinion changes because you have gained additional knowledge. Five day NL's .... 30 day NL's .... you buy at this pullback spot, etc etc .... man it is music to our reading ear. It's a subject we never tire of hearing or discussing.

We love you long time.

You missed out his little hints about the NL derivatives. Like the sorcerer keeping the best stuff from his apprentice, he has always just alluded to them.

After much work, I can honestly say my 1st to 3rd order derivatives of the 5 day NL are the best thing that happened to me since sliced bread.

Now if I could just find a way to extract the same value from 30 day NLs. That one I've been beating my head against a wall trying to find the way through.

 

[logicaltrader]

Petro complex at QADn today except RBOB. HO and RB spreads have had an initial failure at their QADn but no confirmation yet. Maybe if outrights fail here, the whole complex fails and pops. With RBHO pressing all the way to the monthly pivot, HO has been under extreme pressure today. It will be interesting to see how we settle the next couple of days.

 

[redbaron1981]

Ma

This is a great read on all asset classes. The "main" point this book makes is that for most asset classes, the expected return is "highly" dependent on where in the cycle you enter. You can't just make blanket statements like real estate always a good investment or stocks always return 7.5% a year. If you bought bonds in 1980 you destroyed the market over 30 years. If you buy those same bonds today and hold for 30 years you will underperform. Anyone who owned real estate before QE got very lucky. Anyone who bought after the credit crisis got very lucky. But if you get long today, not so much.

So the way to play this stuff is not really as a trade but more as a way to manage your very long term asset holdings.

Mav if you don't mind what's the name of this book?

For some reason on this offshore internet the Amazon page isn't loading.

Thanks.

 

[redbaron1981]

Interesting article here about "buying the pukes".

 

[Maverick74]

Ma

Mav if you don't mind what's the name of this book?

For some reason on this offshore internet the Amazon page isn't loading.

Thanks.

"Expected Returns"

 

[SteveM]

Market is pricing tomorrow's Fed meeting as if it is a near certainty that we won't see a rate hike, just like it was pricing that the UK would remain in EU as a near certainty....not saying the market is wrong about tomorrow, just mentioning that like on the eve of the Brexit vote, the cost of downside protection is very cheap.

 

[redbaron1981]

"Expected Returns"

Thanks Mav.

Here are a few more books I would recommend reading about longer term/investment/portfolio theory.

"The Intelligent Asset Allocator" Bernstein.
"The 4 pillars of investing" Bernstein.
"Unconventional Success" David Swensen.

All the best,

 

[OneFive]

Do any of you have any experience or thoughts to share on the value of researching longer term number lines in the range of 60-130 days that might correspond with quarterly and semi-annual levels? From a trading standpoint, it seems way too slow but I thought it might have value in uncovering longer term themes or changes in trend.