The ACD Method

justrading · Jun 25, 2016

koolaid said:
was there anyway anyone could have traded BREXIT? or the wise thing to do was to just sit out?

Soft deltas, as Mav said, though to be honest I did not analyse them. I assumed IV would be so high it would be hard to make a buck. My mistake, but I could not even conceive of such epic moves.

This video looks at the difficulty of trying to live trade the event. Worth a watch.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video...itter&utm_medium=Kicklighter&utm_campaign=twr

himself · Jun 28, 2016

Coming into today I was pleased to see that the ES was showing strength with the premarket up a dozen points and my theory was that if I got good A Ups in stocks that had shown strength since Brexit I would likely have substantial gains.

So, it is now the end of the day and the ES is up over 40 points, but the stocks I had selected to watch, MO, DG, HSY, FIZZ, and PLNT, stocks that had done well since Brexit, not only had not made A Ups they closed down for the day. Was my theory wrong, my selection wrong, or WTF was wrong?

Maverick74 · Jun 28, 2016

himself said:
Coming into today I was pleased to see that the ES was showing strength with the premarket up a dozen points and my theory was that if I got good A Ups in stocks that had shown strength since Brexit I would likely have substantial gains.

So, it is now the end of the day and the ES is up over 40 points, but the stocks I had selected to watch, MO, DG, HSY, FIZZ, and PLNT, stocks that had done well since Brexit, not only had not made A Ups they closed down for the day. Was my theory wrong, my selection wrong, or WTF was wrong?

Those stocks are defensive names that "Should" hold up well in downturns. When the market rallies you would expect them to give back. The key is to look for "high beta" names that are holding up well in downturns. Those are the ones that will trade strong off a bounce in the index.

eurusdzn · Jun 28, 2016

Can you guys remember such an asymetric bet?
I cant, yet admitedly , after the fact it is so much more clear to me and not much before hence
"The sidelines"
This has gotta be unusual.

himself · Jun 28, 2016

Maverick74 said:
The key is to look for "high beta" names that are holding up well in downturns. Those are the ones that will trade strong off a bounce in the index.

Thank you for that good advice. After today's large range will tomorrow likely be a back and forth day suitable only for fading?

Maverick74 · Jun 30, 2016

Bonds...

FCXoptions · Jun 30, 2016

Maverick74 said:
Bonds...

ZB sure has stayed strong throughout this recovery

Maverick74 · Jun 30, 2016

FCXoptions said:
ZB sure has stayed strong throughout this recovery

This bond trade has been the trade of the century. This price action has been ridiculous.

FCXoptions · Jun 30, 2016

Maverick74 said:
This bond trade has been the trade of the century. This price action has been ridiculous.

Being long bonds you mean? I read some stuff by Raoul Pal a couple weeks ago and it made me realize there is a lot of potential for bonds to really move up given everything going on globally.

Maverick74 · Jun 30, 2016

Yes the long bond trade has been epic.