The ACD Method

[wow12]

I bought a position in VXX (Vix) at 3:00 pm today when the market was pricing remain as a near certainty, I took a $2,000 drawdown by the time the market closed. Figured I deserved it since that is the usual outcome when you try to fade a move. Hopefully the exit vote does win.

My rationale for the trade was that the Vix would probably only fall 5% tomorrow if the vote went as everyone was expecting (remain) at 3pm, but if there was a surprise exit vote the up move could be much more than 5%.

80-90% probability that exit vote win

 

[Maverick74]

ITV is officially calling it: Leave!

 

[Maverick74]

BBC also has officially called it: Leave wins.

 

[SteveM]

It is going to an interesting summer if "will Britain leave" volatility turns into "is the entire EU doomed?" volatility.

 

[wow12]

I started leaning short index and long vol right before the break when I saw the first votes come in. I added some long bond exposure mid way through the evening.

Mav how you gone manage the trade ? i would presume your going to take some money of the table and add some on at later stage ?

 

[kinggyppo]

lots of bright people don't think the euro union will last long term, the implication long term for
the euro and the euro union is not good at all!

 

[justrading]

Ditto with BBC.

Looking ahead I think the lasting impact will be on the Euro, because this brings into question the long term future of the EU.

Will think of shorting EUR against USD and JPY.

 

[Maverick74]

Now the big question is.....who is next.

 

[kinggyppo]

banks are gonna get smacked hard, brexit will be nightmare scenario for them.

 

[justrading]

HSBC and StanChart have been hammered in HK trade.