The ACD Method

For those who are interested in FX vol going into next week....
 

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Saturday's BMG poll put Remain at 46%, Leave at 43% with 11% undecided.

So we see the ES up and JPY down now.

If the Scottish Referendum was any indication, the undecided lot are the ones too scared and cautious to make up their minds until they have to, and then true to their nature they avoid change, since the status quo is safe and familiar.

I can understand why the betting is heavily in favour of Remain, if I could I'd put money on it as a gamble. As a trader, I'm going into it flat.

If any of you like stats, read about how they slice up the undecided lot for the headline. Interesting stuff.

BTW October NG has been moving nicely.

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgherald-final-eu-referendum-poll/
 
justrading said:
Saturday's BMG poll put Remain at 46%, Leave at 43% with 11% undecided.

So we see the ES up and JPY down now.

If the Scottish Referendum was any indication, the undecided lot are the ones too scared and cautious to make up their minds until they have to, and then true to their nature they avoid change, since the status quo is safe and familiar.

I can understand why the betting is heavily in favour of Remain, if I could I'd put money on it as a gamble. As a trader, I'm going into it flat.

If any of you like stats, read about how they slice up the undecided lot for the headline. Interesting stuff.

BTW October NG has been moving nicely.

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgherald-final-eu-referendum-poll/
More...

Yeah have you looked at the thermometer recently in the south. I would buy any cooling dips down to 100 and have my 115 offers out ready to go! :)
 
This overnight rally in risk has got me looking at a remain in brexit and non event. Am holding hedges and carefully monitoring but mkt is indicating we go higher.
 
jj90 said:
This overnight rally in risk has got me looking at a remain in brexit and non event. Am holding hedges and carefully monitoring but mkt is indicating we go higher.
More...

As I said before, Brexit aside, there is no reason to be short to begin with. We bounced off the monthly A downs. Number lines are not breaking down and in some cases they are getting stronger. Brexit is not a reason to be a short even if the polls said 100% they are leaving. The only way I would play a "leave" scenario is not getting short but rather having longs ready to fire on the dip. The irony here is that this brexit talk has taken the focus away from the Fed and the pathetic jobs report and once brexit passes behind us, the market will focus on data that has been more bearish recently.
 
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