The ACD Method

wow12 said:
Im gonna take the counter argument (lol play devils advocate) and say what's not to say Warren Buffet had good dose luck. (George Soros is a better example based on the amount of trades but once again a outlier ) , not lot of people actually beat average market returns few do with that said some people confuse skill with luck.

my personal hypothesis regarding the market is that it shifts from efficiency to inefficiency but is largely efficient 80% of time with 20% being inefficient (i would love to analyse world class traders trade record and see his distribution of returns probably mostly break even with 20% where large amount of money is made ? Mav your thoughts...) with that being said behaviour economics is pretty cool to study ( influenced by prospect theory lol an mav) which helps shed some light why price might move from efficiency to inefficiency, i guess it come down to how people perceive the end outcome relative risk which one can argue is driven by emotion.
More...

I agree the market is mostly efficient most of the time ie. the price of KO or MCD is probably fairly priced right now. Whether central bankers attempting to control investor behavior is a hallmark of complete market efficiency is a question. Of course there are bubbles and panics. Of course all investors and traders aren't rational or acting rationally all the time.

I leave with this quote from the book Maverick Trading (isn't this Mav74?):

"EMT fails to adequately take into account fear and greed among market drivers (institutional investors)." Pg. 4
 
wow12 said:
Im little confused at the moment difficult to read i guess , US dollar has lost some strenght and canadian dollar has picked up some strenght . if US dollar weakens further we could potentially see some strenght in S&P but dont quote me on tht , im pretty confused at the moment.
More...

Cad strength makes sense with the tear oil/gold has been on. Are you seeing dollar weakness against all currencies?

I guess this is one of those times NL help by keeping you out of the market and avoiding chop.
 
DT3 said:
Cad strength makes sense with the tear oil/gold has been on. Are you seeing dollar weakness against all currencies?

I guess this is one of those times NL help by keeping you out of the market and avoiding chop.
More...
DT3 , its more to do with rate of change and time basically lost big chunk of value relatively quick (i don't know if thts the best way to put it but yh) on a overall basis. US dollar still doing ok relative to other pairs.

Yep keep's you safe from difficult market conditions , i guess keeping out of difficult market conditions is half the battle.
 
Maverick74 said:
Instead of looking at "what" the dollar is doing, try more to focus on "why". It's the causes that are more important then the price.
More...
i guess thts the next stage of the puzzle i need to work out with that being said Mav do you compare news flow alongside your numberlines ? or look at various different instruments and their number-lines and try develop a hypothesis (i was thinking of going down this route).
 
Maverick74 said:
Instead of looking at "what" the dollar is doing, try more to focus on "why". It's the causes that are more important then the price.
More...

Could you share some of your thoughts with us Mav? I've seen a rise in commodities and oil...so maybe the dollar is being pressured by this rally in basic materials and metals?

Although there has been a lot of chatter about an impending crash...with Carl Icahn going more negative than 100% lol...and this guy:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-12/milton-berg-we-are-cusp-30-year-bear-market
 
Last edited:
Want to get short but cant pull the trigger S&P bouncing again of the monthly A down, put/Call ratio at extreme levels, ISE under 50 print today and we're what 4% of all time highs?
 
DT3 said:
Want to get short but cant pull the trigger S&P bouncing again of the monthly A down, put/Call ratio at extreme levels, ISE under 50 print today and we're what 4% of all time highs?
More...

Why do you want to get short? FWIW, the number lines are not bad, they are flat basically saying we have a choppy market. And it turns out, we have a choppy market. I'm guessing I'm just asking if there is something specific you are looking at. As you said we are only 4% off the highs. Not exactly a good reason to be bearish.
 
My NL are pretty negative. QQQ at -14, SPY about to confirm at -8 5 day NLs also negative. That's the only reason really.

I thought we'd roll over harder today after the retail earnings #s we got this week and the fact we didn't just makes me reconsider taking any shorts at the moment.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top