The ACD Method

[SteveM]

Has anyone looked at refining their equities numberline scoring system to incorporate additional data?

To me it seems that if a stock scores a +6 on its 5-day numberline during a week where the S&P loses 5%, that is much more significant than if it put up the same +6 during a time where the S&P was ripping higher, and being aware of that dislocation could be valuable going forward

Conversely, if a stock has a +20 reading on its 30-day numberline, and then drops from a +10 to a +4 on its 5-day, and during the last 3 trading days the stock's price has fallen 15% on big volume, that "additional" information might be telling you to run for the hills, even though your 30-day and 5-day lines are still relatively strong.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Mav, just following up to this regarding tweaking my individual equities 30 Day #L to account for "outlier" days....if you don't mind, which of the adjustments below do you think would be most valuable?

1) Applying some type of multiplier to increase daily score when stock significantly diverts from broad market (ex: stock makes good A up & gains >=2% on the day while S&P500 loses >=1%, and vice versa for A-downs).

2) same as above, but also include requirement that stock move was also accompanied by greater than average trading volume.

3) applying multiplier at the end of week if 5-day #L significantly outperforms S&P500 5-day #L.


Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Maverick74]

Natty......lol.....widowmaker is almost back to the lows....no snow gonna scare the natty bear!

 

[ignl]

Anyone noticed OIL etf? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-22/barclays-rigged-its-oil-etn-limiting-new-creation-units

 

[Maverick74]

Natty......lol.....widowmaker is almost back to the lows....no snow gonna scare the natty bear!

Seriously, this is beyond bizarre. This spread trades on avg with a two to four cent carry into delivery. It's at the QTR A down at minus eight now going into arguably maybe the only real storm we have this winter on the northeast which they of course are calling the "storm of the century".

Watching the 30 day as we are getting close to re-setting.

 

[ignl]

Seriously, this is beyond bizarre. This spread trades on avg with a two to four cent carry into delivery. It's at the QTR A down at minus eight now going into arguably maybe the only real storm we have this winter on the northeast which they of course are calling the "storm of the century".

Watching the 30 day as we are getting close to re-setting.

On average maybe (counting the years with spikes to 1000+), but I think it usually ends up something like -100/-150 once it is clear that there will be enough gas for april. And this year it seems that we have plenty of gas. I think it could even go to record deep contango (big stockpiles, mild winter, still strong production and lack of demand in spring) but this is the widow maker so better stay away

 

[koolaid]

anyone noticed that while SPY has bounced the past few days...it could not close above the intraday Aup?

 

[redbaron1981]

My Dollar ETF (UUP) confirmed today. Last confirmation was 10/29/15. That one was on a monthly A up (yes it was very late in the month) but it also had a strong monthly number line. If one had bought the next day opening there was a nice 2.5 to 3% increase during November.

Today’s confirmation comes on a weak non-confirmed monthly number line and nowhere near a monthly a up. There is however lots of rising bottoms following a clear bullish support line.

If the ETF FLAT gets a zero or higher number tomorrow it will confirm. It’s also in the top tier of a few relative strength scans. Mentor Mav has provided a number of insightful posts on STPP and FLAT and a quick search will reveal them.

Hi Robert,

Are you using conventional scoring or personalized as I have quite a different number 30 day to you at the moment.

My UUP 30 day is only at -1 with the last confirmed line for it being on the 22/11/2015. The 5 day for UUP that I have as currently being 0.

Would not normally mention it and I know it does not really make a difference but there is quite a discrepancy between the two of us.

 

[Maverick74]

anyone noticed that while SPY has bounced the past few days...it could not close above the intraday Aup?

Bear market rallies are vicious. But fadeable.....

 

[Robert Yanks]

Hi Robert,

Are you using conventional scoring or personalized as I have quite a different number 30 day to you at the moment.

My UUP 30 day is only at -1 with the last confirmed line for it being on the 22/11/2015. The 5 day for UUP that I have as currently being 0.

Would not normally mention it and I know it does not really make a difference but there is quite a discrepancy between the two of us.

Hello RB,

I should have said “Last positive confirmation on 10/26/15” etc. I had a negative confirmation on 12/10/15.

I only post number lines that reflect the Fisher confirmation methodology in the event someone wants to follow along with this ole homegamer.

Here’s the thing with my daily A levels and numberlines, I don’t care if anyone knows how I calculate those particular levels and I suspect many folks use the basic daily calcs somewhere in the vicinity of Mentor Mav’s old post in 2010:

02-05-10 Quote from cunparis:

Can you explain more about it? I read the book but I don't get how to calculate the ACD values.

“Using 20% to 25% of either a 5 or 10 day ATR is a good start for both the A and C values.”

That’s right in the wheelhouse I use for dailies.

(As a side note: my weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly A levels are all stolen as best I could from Mav’s many examples and everyone needs to do their own homework to calculate those levels.)

Anyway, I use a 10 minute OR and for the most part want a full 10 minute confirmation (none of the ½ time stuff ). I’ve attached the last 30 days or so of my UUP spreadsheet. Our difference is most likely the way I scored 1/11 and 1/20. But, I know how I did it and I wouldn’t change a thing…. and … I’m sure you wouldn’t change yours either.

Who you rooting for in tomorrow's FB games?

 

[OneFive]

Hello RB,

I should have said “Last positive confirmation on 10/26/15” etc. I had a negative confirmation on 12/10/15.

I only post number lines that reflect the Fisher confirmation methodology in the event someone wants to follow along with this ole homegamer.

Here’s the thing with my daily A levels and numberlines, I don’t care if anyone knows how I calculate those particular levels and I suspect many folks use the basic daily calcs somewhere in the vicinity of Mentor Mav’s old post in 2010:

02-05-10 Quote from cunparis:

Can you explain more about it? I read the book but I don't get how to calculate the ACD values.

“Using 20% to 25% of either a 5 or 10 day ATR is a good start for both the A and C values.”

That’s right in the wheelhouse I use for dailies.

(As a side note: my weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly A levels are all stolen as best I could from Mav’s many examples and everyone needs to do their own homework to calculate those levels.)

Anyway, I use a 10 minute OR and for the most part want a full 10 minute confirmation (none of the ½ time stuff ). I’ve attached the last 30 days or so of my UUP spreadsheet. Our difference is most likely the way I scored 1/11 and 1/20. But, I know how I did it and I wouldn’t change a thing…. and … I’m sure you wouldn’t change yours either.

Who you rooting for in tomorrow's FB games?

Hi Robert (or Mav), How is the Vol Index derived and utilized?
Thanks, John