The ACD Method

SteveM said:
Has anyone looked at refining their equities numberline scoring system to incorporate additional data?

To me it seems that if a stock scores a +6 on its 5-day numberline during a week where the S&P loses 5%, that is much more significant than if it put up the same +6 during a time where the S&P was ripping higher, and being aware of that dislocation could be valuable going forward

Conversely, if a stock has a +20 reading on its 30-day numberline, and then drops from a +10 to a +4 on its 5-day, and during the last 3 trading days the stock's price has fallen 15% on big volume, that "additional" information might be telling you to run for the hills, even though your 30-day and 5-day lines are still relatively strong.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?
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Yup, already did that.
 
Cswim63 said:
Is there any way to short Andy Hall? He might be the overhanging supply about to be liquidated.
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Honestly the more he talks about how long he is and how bullish he is, he might be the target we are all looking for. If his fund really is down 35% then his investors are only going to put up with so much before they bail and if they bail, he HAS to sell and the dude is long over a billion dollars worth of oil.
 
Maverick74 said:
Honestly the more he talks about how long he is and how bullish he is, he might be the target we are all looking for. If his fund really is down 35% then his investors are only going to put up with so much before they bail and if they bail, he HAS to sell and the dude is long over a billion dollars worth of oil.
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You wonder if he's been buying all the way down. That's sort of my reaction to the piece. Anyway, somebody else likely was if not him, and we haven't seen it hit yet in the market in a big and public way like LTCM and the like. This big of a move that just keeps squeezing aught to produce one soon
 
SteveM said:
Has anyone looked at refining their equities numberline scoring system to incorporate additional data?

To me it seems that if a stock scores a +6 on its 5-day numberline during a week where the S&P loses 5%, that is much more significant than if it put up the same +6 during a time where the S&P was ripping higher, and being aware of that dislocation could be valuable going forward

Conversely, if a stock has a +20 reading on its 30-day numberline, and then drops from a +10 to a +4 on its 5-day, and during the last 3 trading days the stock's price has fallen 15% on big volume, that "additional" information might be telling you to run for the hills, even though your 30-day and 5-day lines are still relatively strong.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?
More...

I asked a similar question last week...how does everyone adjust the numberline when we have large moves in the overnite session but the day session trades sideways?

I started playing around with Tony Crabel's Stretch concept (noise bands) around the ETH open and run a numberline to account for strong overnite moves.

1. Take the Open, High and Low of each day.
2. Find delta of High - Open.
3. Find delta of Open - Low.
4. Which ever is lower between step 1 and step 2 take that value for each day.
5. Stretch = average of the values of past 10 days.

I copied 1-5 from this website after google-ing 'Crabel Stretch'... http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2012/04/toby-crabel-definition-of-patterns.html
 
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I'm calling a short-term bottom* here in WTI at $29.93

*Please note that the commentary provided is worth the price you paid for it.
 
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